Thursday’s EIA report (week ended 29 Mar) – EA Final Estimate: +16 bcf
- We forecast Thursday’s EIA report will show the first injection of 2019, of 16 bcf. Gas-weighted HDDs (GWHDDs) fell by just over 5% w/w, causing res-com demand to shrink by 3.4 bcf/d w/w. LNG feedgas demand also declined, by 1.3 bcf/d w/w, as flows to Cheniere’s Sabine Pass dropped by the same amount w/w due to maintenance on its first two trains. Production, which rose by 1.0 bcf/d w/w, also factored into the swing to injections. Permian output grew by 0.3 bcf/d w/w despite maintenance on El Paso Natural Gas’s (EPNG) pipeline system. Rockies output rose by 0.2 bcf/d w/w, while Bakken receipts were up by 0.1 bcf/d w/w to a record high 1.9 bcf/d.
Next Thursday’s report (week ending 5 Apr) – EA Estimate: +33 bcf
- We project a 33 bcf injection for the current week as weather continues to moderate. GWHDDs are forecast to decline by 5% w/w, which will reduce res-com demand by 2.1 bcf/d w/w. This will more than offset the only significant increase on the demand side of the ledger, a 0.5 bcf/d w/w jump in power burn. Nuclear outages have continued to climb w/w as refuelling season progresses, with the 1.9 GW Brunswick and the 1.2 GW Callaway reactors going offline this week.
- Production is on track to grow by 0.5 bcf/d w/w to marginally pad the injection rate. Appalachia is on pace to average 30.6 bcf/d this week (+0.6 bcf/d w/w), its highest regional output since mid-February freeze-offs. Rockies receipts will counteract part of that growth, falling by 0.2 bcf/d w/w.
- Permian receipts are set to slide by 0.1 bcf/d w/w. Northbound flows out of the basin remain limited by an ongoing force majeure on EPNG’s Line 2000. While work on EPNG’s Florida compressor station finished on 31 March, replacing failed equipment on Line 2000’s Lordsburg compressor is set to last through 5 April, limiting EPNG capacity by 0.1 bcf/d.
- We forecast net imports from Canada will edge up by 0.1 bcf/d w/w, although geographic disparities will exist in flows. Imports in the west will be up by 0.4 bcf/d w/w on a commensurate increase in gas flowing through the Emerson/Noyes border crossing. However, imports will fall by 0.3 bcf/d w/w in the east. This drop would be larger if it was not for flows through the Waddington border point in upstate New York—which are traditionally weather dependent—spiking by 0.4 bcf/d d/d on 2 April amid near-freezing temperatures in the US Northeast.
- We forecast LNG feedgas demand will be flat w/w at 4.1 bcf/d. The lack of movement will be despite Sempra Energy’s first train (capacity 0.6 bcf/d) at Cameron LNG beginning to take feedgas on 27 March. Cameron’s initial intake has been less than 10 mmcf/d. Elsewhere, feedgas to Sabine Pass will stay flat w/w at 2.5 bcf/d, 1.4 bcf/d off its March high, due to the ongoing work there.
|Fig 1: Regional flows and fundamentals model, bcf|
|Source: Energy Aspects|
|Fig 2: Balance forecasts, bcf/d|
|Source: Energy Aspects|