India oil data – Feb 2019

Published at 10:38 22 Mar 2019 by

Users licensed for the data service can access our India oil data.

Strong Indian oil demand growth continued in February. Demand was higher y/y by 0.18 mb/d at 4.85 mb/d, a record high. Growth was led by light ends, with combined gasoline, naphtha and LPG demand surging y/y by 0.25 mb/d. Indian oil demand is set to remain strong through at least H1 19, supported by government infrastructure spending, a consumer-friendly pre-election budget and easing credit constraints causing bank lending to increase. Gasoline demand rose to a record high of 0.69 mb/d in February, with y/y growth at 51 thousand b/d, despite new passenger vehicle sales falling by 1.1% y/y in February. Naphtha demand surged by 83 thousand b/d y/y to a record high of 0.41 mb/d, driven by very low prices incentivising usage in sectors such as power generation and fertiliser production. LPG demand jumped to another record high, buoyed by restocking demand ahead of the general elections. Diesel demand rose m/m by 90 thousand b/d to 1.8 mb/d in February, with y/y growth at 48 thousand b/d. Jet demand rose by 18 thousand b/d y/y, offsetting a 10 thousand b/d drop y/y in kerosene demand, despite several Jet Airways flights being grounded as the company ran into cash problems. 

Indian refinery runs were up m/m by 69 thousand b/d in February at 5.26 mb/d (flat y/y). A 94 thousand b/d m/m drop in throughput at IOC’s Panipat refinery, where a 0.15 mb/d CDU went offline, was offset by high runs at Bhatinda (+36 thousand b/d m/m), Mathura (+31 thousand b/d m/m) and Mumbai (+22 thousand b/d m/m).  Runs in March are likely to rise m/m, supported by a 0.1 mb/d drop in offline CDU capacity, leaving runs at 5.24 mb/d (+26 thousand b/d y/y) in Q1 19. Crude stocks drew by 0.11 mb/d on higher runs and weak imports.

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