Extract from production:
We forecast that Canadian liquids production in January fell by 0.44 mb/d m/m to 5.05 mb/d (-16 thousand b/d y/y), led by a 0.31 mb/d m/m fall in bitumen production due to the Albertan government’s mandated production cuts. In-situ production was lower by 69 thousand b/d m/m due to decreases across multiple facilities including CNRL’s Primrose and Wolf Lake (-15 thousand b/d m/m) as well as its Cold Lake production (-11 thousand b/d m/m), ConocoPhillips’ Surmont (-25 thousand b/d m/m), as well as Husky’s Sunrise (-12 thousand b/d m/m) and Suncor’s Firebag and MacKay River (-14 thousand b/d m/m). This was partially offset by higher synthetic production, up by 40 thousand b/d m/m. Conventional production was 14 thousand b/d lower m/m, led by onshore declines.
Final data for December show total Canadian liquids production increased by 37 thousand b/d m/m to 5.49 mb/d (+0.27 mb/d y/y), versus our estimate of 43 thousand b/d m/m fall. The discrepancy is due to higher NGL production vs our estimate of a fall. Synthetic production came off from November’s all-time high, lower by 70 thousand b/d m/m at 1.17 mb/d. This was offset by higher conventional (+43 thousand b/d m/m) and bitumen output (+32 thousand b/d m/m), as well as higher NGLs output (+33 thousand b/d m/m).
Extract from demand:
Canadian January demand fell by 0.28 mb/d y/y to 2.01 mb/d, led by LPG (-87 thousand b/d, y/y), amidst milder temperatures. November and December demand were each revised down by 0.12 mb/d to 2.45 mb/d and 2.25 mb/d respectively driven by downward revisions in gasoline and LPG. Full year 2018 demand fell by 15 thousand b/d to 2.34 mb/d.
Canadian gasoline demand fell by 35 thousand b/d y/y to 0.70 mb/d in January, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing y/y by 1.4% (+2.1% y/y, excluding gasoline). Gasoline prices fell by 14.2% y/y in January. The number of people employed increased 1.8% y/y by 327,000, while total hours worked increased by 1.2% y/y. However, the unemployment rate increased by 0.2 ppts y/y to 5.8%. Employment rose in six provinces, led by Ontario and Quebec, while Alberta and Saskatchewan reported declines.