US demand and trade – Oct 2018

Published at 11:26 3 Jan 2019 by . Last edited 11:18 22 Aug 2019.

US oil demand rose y/y by 0.78 mb/d to 20.77 mb/d in October, a 0.17 mb/d upward revision from the weekly EIA estimates—we had expected a 0.1 mb/d downward revision. Combined demand for the four main products increased by 0.18 mb/d y/y in October, while demand for ‘other oils’ grew y/y by 0.6 mb/d to 5.2 mb/d.

Despite all US regions reporting higher y/y vehicle miles travelled (VMT) in October, particularly the West (+1.8%) and South Atlantic (+1.7%), US gasoline demand decreased by 84 thousand b/d y/y to 9.3 mb/d, led by PADD 3 (-32 thousand b/d) and PADD 5 (-38 thousand b/d), as prices rose (+32 cents y/y to $2.94 per gallon in October).

US distillate demand grew by 0.37 mb/d y/y to 4.4 mb/d despite the ISM manufacturing index falling by 3.5% m/m in October, though it remained strong at 57.7. The Freight Transportation Service Index (TSI) rose by 7.3% y/y in October (+1.3% m/m), reaching an all-time high above the previous all-time high reached in June 2018.

US crude exports hit another record high in October, rising by 0.21 mb/d m/m and by a massive 0.60 mb/d y/y to 2.33 mb/d, led by a new record high 0.46 mb/d arriving in South Korea (+0.17 mb/d m/m, +0.41 mb/d y/y). Exports to Canada also ramped up, by 0.13 mb/d m/m to 0.47 mb/d but flows to Europe fell to 0.58 mb/d (from 0.67 mb/d in September). Lower flows to the UK led the drop, falling by 74 thousand b/d m/m to 0.17 mb/d amid high planned turnarounds and surging freight rates. Flows to China remained zero for the third consecutive month, but we expect Chinese purchases to pick up gradually following the US–China 90-day trade truce agreed at the G20.

Log in to download

Other Data review publications

US Department of Energy

Published 1 day ago

2019-12 Oil - Data review - US Department of Energy cover
Users licensed for the data service can access our US crude balances.Extract from..

Read more

Brazil oil data – Oct 2019

Published 2 days ago

2019-12 Oil - Data review - Brazil oil data – Oct 2019 cover
Users licensed for the data service can access our Brazil oil data.Brazil’s..

Read more

Russia and FSU – Oct/Nov 2019

Published 3 days ago

2019-12 Oil - Data review - Russia and FSU – Oct/Nov 2019 cover
Users licensed for the data service can access our Russia and FSU oil data.Russian..

Read more

US demand – Sep 2019

Published 6 days ago

2019-11 Oil - Data review - US demand – Sep 2019 cover
US oil demand rose in September by 0.14 mb/d y/y to 20.2 mb/d, a 0.72 mb/d downward revision from..

Read more

UK oil data – Oct 2019

Published 1 week ago

2019-11 Oil - Data review - UK oil data – Oct 2019 cover
Users licensed for the data service can access our UK oil data.UK liquids production in Octo..

Read more