Thursday’s EIA report (week ended 4 Jan) – EA Final Estimate: -69 bcf
- We forecast Thursday’s EIA report will show a withdrawal of 69 bcf. A sharp 1.8 bcf/d w/w decline in total production helped drive the call on storage. Rockies output led the decline, losing 0.4 bcf/d w/w, while Permian and San Juan receipts fell by 0.3 bcf/d w/w each. Gulf of Mexico production also dropped, by 0.2 bcf/d w/w, after flows through the Garden Banks-Kinetica Deepwater interconnect were restricted by a similar amount from 1–4 January. On the demand side of the ledger, gas-weighted HDDs (GWHDDs) rose by 5% w/w, pushing res-com demand up by 3.0 bcf/d w/w. Power burn also rose, by 0.9 bcf/d w/w, to 23.1 bcf/d.
Next Thursday’s report (week ending 11 Jan) – EA Estimate: -78 bcf
- We project a withdrawal of 78 bcf in the current week. While GWHDDs are forecast to be flat w/w, industrial demand is on track to rise by 1.0 bcf/d w/w in the first week of the new year without a holiday impact. Net exports to Mexico also recovered, jumping by 0.6 bcf/d w/w.
- Power burn is likewise forecast to help drive up total demand, growing by 1.7 bcf/d w/w. High nuclear outages are playing a role in the increase, with the 1.5 GW Comanche Peak 2 (Texas), the 1.2 GW Fermi (Michigan), and the Waterford 3 (Louisiana) reactors all offline for refuelling. These outages, combined, account for an additional 0.5 bcf/d in gas demand for the power sector.
- Total lower 48 receipts are set to rise by 0.4 bcf/d w/w, thanks to production basins in the South Central. Haynesville output is trending towards 0.2 bcf/d in w/w growth, while Arkla and Appalachia will account for w/w gains of 0.1 bcf/d each.
- Output from the WCSB is on track to fall by 0.7 bcf/d w/w as Westcoast Energy deals with emergency repairs to the flare piping system at the McMahon gas plant. The plant, which had been running at 0.6 bcf/d throughout December, will be offline from 2–12 January to fix the issue. Despite the production decline, we forecast net imports from Canada will rise by 0.5 bcf/d w/w to 5.9 bcf/d. Flows through New York’s Waddington border crossing are up by 0.2 bcf/d w/w amidst cold in the US Northeast, with regional GWHDDs forecast to grow by 20% w/w. Meanwhile, a lack of TransCanada pipeline maintenance will see imports in the west rise by 0.3 bcf/d w/w.
- Cold weather in the Southwest prompted the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) to extend voluntary electricity conservation measures three additional days to 7 January. Low temperatures of 45°F in Southern California early in the current week forced withdrawals from the closely monitored Aliso Canyon facility on 4 January. Temperatures are forecast to moderate later in the week, which will help the Pacific’s projected withdrawal ease by 3 bcf w/w to 6 bcf.
|Fig 1: Regional flows and fundamentals model, bcf|
|Source: Energy Aspects|
|Fig 2: Balance forecasts, bcf/d|
|Source: Energy Aspects|