Our Europe, Middle East & Africa Quarterly (EMEAQ) provides comprehensive analysis of the EMEA region, examining key topics in depth and providing a detailed guide to regional supply, demand, trade flows and downstream capacity. Each quarter, ‘In Focus’ pieces delve into key issues that will impact the market in the near and medium term.
In this edition:
- In Focus: OPEC pulled out the stops at its 6 December meeting, delivering a decisive 1.2 mb/d cut, which should wipe out the overhang previously expected for H1 19. But with demand concerns increasingly to the fore, the decision was ultimately driven by a desire to defend against further downside to oil prices.
- In Focus: Looking beyond the OPEC cuts, the outlook for Iraqi crude production has brightened considerably. After driving back the so-called Islamic State (IS) in 2017, the country has finally enjoyed a year of relative political stability, allowing production to creep up, and, if all goes to plan, exports from Kirkuk via the Kurdish pipeline to fully resume.
- Macroeconomic outlook: With IMO 2020 a little over a year away, all eyes are on diesel and HSFO balances. European demand for ULSD continues to grow in the short term, boosted by growth in the on-road freight sector, but beyond 2020 it will likely decline thanks to changing carmaker and consumer preferences.
- Outlook for oil products: Some in the market are still banking on Saudi Arabia’s power sector to mop up the IMO-related HSFO surplus indicated by our 2020 balances, but the Kingdom’s ability to burn more HSFO will be largely confined to greenfield plants. It is a similar story in the Middle East’s smaller fuel oil consuming countries.
- Outlook for crude: Much like Iraq, Sudan and South Sudan will emerge from 2018 with a glimmer of optimism. Conflict and under-investment have capped combined crude production at 0.25 mb/d over the past five years—half the levels seen when the two countries were unified prior to 2011—but a peace deal signed in September could finally pave the way for an increase in output.
EMEAQ also provides a unique and comprehensive overview of key regional data, focusing on: demand, refining, supply, trade flows and prices, including domestic consumption by country and by oil product for key European, Middle Eastern and African countries; refining capacity and upcoming projects by country; refined products output; and crude output by country, with a detailed focus on the largest regional players.