Europe oil data – Oct 2018

Published at 15:48 18 Dec 2018 by

Extract from demand:

European oil demand was slightly lower y/y by 34 thousand b/d at 15.73 mb/d in October. Still, EU-5 demand was higher y/y by 5 thousand b/d, the first expansion since April, and was led by France, where demand jumped by 0.15 mb/d y/y. Germany was the laggard once again, falling by 0.29 mb/d, with final versions likely to show declines of around 0.24 mb/d as per recent trends. With diesel up strongly, it was naphtha that dragged overall demand lower, falling y/y at a record pace of 0.37 mb/d. While y/y declines were expected given that offline daily ethylene production capacity was higher y/y by 0.1 Mtpy and as naphtha was the preferred feedstock for crackers last year versus LPG this year, the scale of the fall has surpassed our expectations, especially as LPG demand was also lower y/y, albeit by a much shallower 5 thousand b/d.

Extract from refinery runs and stocks:

Refinery runs fell m/m by 0.38 mb/d to 13.50 mb/d in October, lower y/y by 0.63 mb/d. Heavy CDU maintenance weighed on runs, with 1.7 mb/d of capacity offline across the region (+0.56 mb/d y/y). German runs remained low at 1.51 mbd in October (-0.48 mb/d y/y), the lowest on our records dating back to 2002, in part due to very low Rhine water levels that led to releases of strategic German product stocks. Meanwhile, inland stocks in Germany were stretched by unplanned outages at the 0.21 mb/d Schwedt and 0.12 mb/d Vohburg refineries in October. November European runs likely remained depressed, with CDU outages at similar levels, 1.1 mb/d higher y/y. Heavy TARs were led by Italy (+0.1 mb/d m/m), where maintenance at Lukoil’s Isab Nord refinery took 0.22 mb/d of CDU capacity offline. In Portugal, works were 80 thousand b/d heavier m/m, driven by work at Galp’s 0.22 mb/d Sines plant, which resumed operations early this month. We expect European runs to average 12.4 mb/d (-0.2 mb/d y/y) in Q1 19.

Log in to download

Other Data review publications

Canada oil data – June 2019

Published 2 days ago

2019-08 Oil - Data review - Canada oil data – June 2019 cover
Users licensed for the data service can access our Canadian oil production data&nb..

Read more

Key agency forecasts

Published 2 days ago

2019-08 Oil - Data review - Key agency forecasts cover
The past two weeks have seen all three of the key agency forecasts published. Last week saw both..

Read more

Norway oil data – July 2019

Published 2 days ago

2019-08 Oil - Data review - Norway oil data – July 2019 cover
Users licensed for the data service can access our Norway oil production data.Norwegian..

Read more

Rig report

Published 2 days ago

No cover
Within this report you will be able to review the latest figures published by Baker Hughes by oil..

Read more

US Department of Energy

Published 4 days ago

2019-08 Oil - Data review - US Department of Energy cover
Users licensed for the data service can access our US crude balances.Extract from..

Read more