Thursday’s EIA report (week ended 7 Dec) – EA Final Estimate: -79 bcf
- We forecast Thursday’s EIA report will show a withdrawal of 79 bcf. National gas-weighted HDDs crept up by just under 5% w/w as much of the eastern US, including Boston, New York, and Washington DC, dealt with low temperatures below freezing. Res-com demand ticked up by 1.2 bcf/d w/w as a result. Total demand also rose thanks to smaller w/w gains from power burn (+0.6 bcf/d) and gas use in the industrial sector (+0.7 bcf/d). Rising production met a small part of this demand, with total Lower 48 output up by 0.5 bcf/d w/w to a fresh record high of 86.4 bcf/d. Appalachia receipts increased by 0.4 bcf/d w/w to account for most of the growth after flows rose by 0.3 bcf/d w/w on NEXUS, with East Texas accounting for the other 0.1 bcf/d in new output w/w.
Next Thursday’s report (week ending 14 Dec) – EA Estimate: -150 bcf
- The withdrawal rate will jump to 150 bcf in the current week. GWHDDs are forecast to shoot up by 20% w/w as cold weather extends beyond the Northeast. The South Atlantic saw heavy snow from a 9 December winter storm, while in the Midwest, early week low temperatures in Chicago and St. Louis of 15°F were 10°F below historical norms. We forecast res-com demand to grow by 7.3 bcf/d w/w to 41.6 bcf/d as a result.
- Falling production will also factor into the higher withdrawal, with total Lower 48 output set to decrease by 0.6 bcf/d w/w. A 0.3 bcf/d w/w decline in Permian receipts underlies the overall drop. A force majeure was declared on NGPL’s Compressor Station 103 in Kansas on 11 December due to a horsepower issue on its Amarillo mainline, which is strangling 0.2 bcf/d in northbound flows.
- The Gulf of Mexico is the other culprit behind the drop in output. Receipts in the Gulf are on track to decrease by 0.3 bcf/d w/w, with flows falling off on several pipelines. The Kinetica Deepwater Express has seen volumes fall by 0.2 bcf/d w/w to 0.1 bcf/d, while maintenance on Tennessee Gas Pipeline’s Station 524 has cut flows from the Gulf by another 0.1 bcf/d starting on 10 December.
- We forecast that net imports from Canada will rise by 0.5 bcf/d w/w. The cold gripping the US Northeast will see flows through the Waddington border point in New York rise by 0.3 bcf/d w/w to 1.1 bcf/d. Further north, the US will import gas this week at the Calais point in Maine, for the first time since April, after the LNG tanker Sevilla Knutsen unloads the first cargo of the winter at Canada’s lone regas facility, at Canaport, on 11 December.
- LNG feedgas demand will rise by 0.1 bcf/d w/w after Corpus Christi shipped its first cargo on 10 December. Corpus Christi will see 0.5 bcf/d in feedgas intake, up by 0.1 bcf/d w/w, as Kpler cargo-tracking data indicate the LNG tanker Marvel Falcon will dock at the facility early next week.
|Fig 1: Regional flows and fundamentals model, bcf|
|Source: Energy Aspects|
|Fig 2: Balance forecasts, bcf/d|
|Source: Energy Aspects|