Friday’s EIA report (week ended 30 Nov) – EA Final Estimate: -64 bcf
- We forecast this week’s EIA storage report, which has been moved to Friday, will show that 64 bcf was drawn from inventories. Gas-weighted HDDs were perfectly flat w/w, which left res-com demand also unchanged w/w at 33.2 bcf/d. Total demand grew by 1.8 bcf/d w/w led by industrial gas use, which recovered from the Thanksgiving holiday impact to rise by 0.5 bcf/d w/w, and power burn, which grew by 1.4 bcf/d w/w. Total Lower 48 production also increased, by 1.1 bcf/d w/w to a new record of 85.9 bcf/d. The growth came from across the country, with the Anadarko, Bakken, DJ, Gulf of Mexico, Permian, and San Juan basins each logging w/w increases of 0.1 bcf/d, and Appalachia and East Texas each notching up 0.2 bcf/d of w/w growth.
Next Thursday’s report (week ending 7 Dec) – EA Estimate: -92 bcf
- We forecast that the current week will see a 92 bcf withdrawal thanks to colder weather across the country. GWHDDs are on pace to grow by 10% w/w amid freezing temperatures across a wide swath of the eastern US covering New York, Washington DC, and Chicago, with res-com demand to rise by 2.5 bcf/d w/w as a result.
- We forecast Lower 48 production will rise by 0.3 bcf/d w/w to a record high of 86.2 bcf/d, with Appalachia production growing by even more (+0.5 bcf/d w/w). Utilisation of new infrastructure is allowing for higher receipts. Total flows on NEXUS edged up by 0.2 bcf/d w/w to 1.0 bcf/d, while Rover’s Sherwood lateral posted receipts of 0.7 bcf/d, up by 0.2 bcf/d w/w. Total output will lag behind Appalachia thanks to small declines of 0.1 bcf/d each in the East Texas and Arkla basins.
- Daily NGTL storage receipts shows that storage activity in Alberta will drop to 0.2 bcf/d in withdrawals this week after recording a small, counter-seasonal injection in the reference week. This higher local demand will push net imports from Canada down by 0.1 bcf/d w/w to 4.4 bcf/d.
- FERC’s 30 November approval of Kinder Morgan’s Sabine Pass Expansion Project and Williams’s Gulf Connector Expansion Project will help boost LNG feedgas demand by 0.1 bcf/d w/w. The new infrastructure will allow Cheniere to take more gas into its facilities at Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi. Inflows to the latter peaked at 0.5 bcf/d on 4 December, and the terminal is likely to see its first export cargo this week after the LNG tanker Maria Energy docked there on 2 December.
- We forecast exports to Mexico will drop by 0.1 bcf/d w/w to 4.8 bcf/d. A 30 November force majeure on Texas Eastern’s Santa Fe compressor station is limiting flows to the CENAGAS system across the border by 0.1 bcf/d. The timeline for repairs is unknown.
|Fig 1: Regional flows and fundamentals model, bcf|
|Source: Energy Aspects|
|Fig 2: Balance forecasts, bcf/d|
|Source: Energy Aspects|