Thursday’s EIA report (week ended 23 Nov) – EA Final Estimate: -66 bcf
- We forecast Thursday’s EIA report will show a withdrawal of 66 bcf, a w/w decline in the withdrawal rate of 68 bcf. Despite a cold Thanksgiving in the Northeast, gas-weighted HDDs (GWHDDs) fell nationally by 5% w/w, causing a 3.0 bcf/d w/w decline in res-com demand. Industrial demand also suffered, falling by 1.6 bcf/d w/w due to both the more moderate weather and the holiday impact lowering baseline industrial gas use. An increase in total supply also drove the withdrawal rate down. Total Lower 48 production rose by 0.7 bcf/d w/w to 84.8 bcf/d due to growth in Texas and the Rockies, while Canadian net imports rose by 0.2 bcf/d w/w as capacity on Westcoast Energy’s T-South pipeline was boosted by 0.1 bcf/d to 1.0 bcf/d on 17 November.
Next Thursday’s report (week ending 30 Nov) – EA Estimate: -61 bcf
- We forecast that the current week will see a 61 bcf withdrawal from inventories. GWHDDs are projected to edge up by under 5% w/w, causing res-com demand to grow by 0.6 bcf/d w/w to 33.8 bcf/d. Industrial demand will also recover by 0.4 bcf/d w/w as holiday impact fades.
- The growth in total demand will be countered by a new weekly production record, with total Lower 48 output soaring by 1.1 bcf/d w/w to 85.9 bcf/d. Once again, a geographically diverse group of plays will share the gains: the Andarko, Appalachia, Bakken, DJ, Gulf of Mexico, and San Juan are each on track to rise by 0.1 bcf/d w/w. East Texas will also see growth of 0.2 bcf/d w/w.
- The Permian is on track to account for the rest of the w/w production gains of 0.3 bcf/d w/w, despite an explosion near ETP’s Waha gas processing plant in Pecos County on 23 November. Waha prices plummeted to negative intraday trading yesterday. While there has not been a noticeable effect on Permian production, based on our flow sample, due to the explosion and subsequent plant closure, the lack of clarity from Texas flow data may be masking some negative impact (the abundance of intrastate pipes, which do not have to report flows, means our sample only covers approximately 55% of Permian production).
- We forecast LNG feedgas demand will rise by 0.1 bcf/d w/w to an all-time high of 4.5 bcf/d. Corpus Christi demand will grow by 0.3 bcf/d w/w to 0.4 bcf/d as the facility prepares for commercial service. This growth will be slightly offset by a 0.2 bcf/d w/w decline in Sabine Pass feedgas intake.
- Despite the continued ramp-up of capacity on Westcoast’s T-South, which is scheduled to hit 1.3 bcf/d by 30 November, we forecast net imports from Canada will decline by 0.1 bcf/d w/w to 4.4 bcf/d. NGTL maintenance on the Western Alberta Mainline will cut up to 0.3 bcf/d w/w to the Port of Morgan border crossing in Montana between 20 November–1 December.
|Fig 1: Regional flows and fundamentals model, bcf|
|Source: Energy Aspects|
|Fig 2: Balance forecasts, bcf/d|
|Source: Energy Aspects|