Thursday’s EIA report (week ended 2 Nov) – EA Final Estimate: +56 bcf
- We forecast Thursday’s EIA report will show an injection of 56 bcf. Gas-weighted HDDs (GWHDDs) eased by 10% w/w, causing res-com demand to fall by 0.8 bcf/d w/w to 18.4 bcf/d. A 0.6 bcf/d w/w drop in power burn also depressed total demand, as did maintenance that cut LNG feedgas flows to Sabine Pass. Work on the Creole Trail pipeline’s Gillis compressor station over 29–31 October cut flows to the facility by 0.6 bcf/d and limited total feedgas growth to just 0.1 bcf/d w/w. Total US production grew by 0.6 bcf/d w/w thanks to gains of 0.1 bcf/d w/w each from the Appalachia, Arkla, East Texas, and DJ basins. However, total supply gains were a more muted 0.2 bcf/d w/w as net imports from Canada fell by 0.5 bcf/d w/w.
Next Thursday’s report (week ending 9 Nov) – EA Estimate: +32 bcf
- In what is likely to be the last injection of the year, we forecast that next week’s EIA report will show 32 bcf added to inventories. GWHDDs are forecast to rise by 20% w/w, leading to 2.3 bcf/d in w/w uplift from the res-com sector. Gas use in the industrial sector will grow by 0.3 bcf/d w/w, as colder temperatures cause higher gas burn for industrial heating.
- Total production is on track to fall by 0.4 bcf/d w/w to 84.6 bcf/d, thanks to losses throughout the South Central. The Permian, San Juan, and East Texas basins will account for the declines, after Northern Natural Gas posted a critical alert on 5 November for its pipeline network that is causing capacity constraints at hundreds of receipts points. Northern cited ‘major underperformance at several Field Area delivery points’, which it said will last through 7 November.
- The final two pieces of Rover Phase 2—the Sherwood and CGT laterals—entered service on 1 November. According to our flow data, the Sherwood lateral has carried 0.5 bcf/d every day since 3 November, but total gains on Rover have been dampened to just 0.2 bcf/d w/w, as flows have fallen from the system’s Seneca lateral since the new sections of pipe came online.
- We forecast LNG feedgas demand will rise by 0.1 bcf/d w/w to 3.9 bcf/d. Corpus Christi has registered new intake highs above 0.1 bcf/d after receiving FERC authorisation to export commissioning cargoes on 30 October. While we don’t expect Corpus to load a cargo in the current week, the facility’s current storage of 2 bcf suggests it should happen before month-end.
- Canadian net imports are on track to decline by a further 0.2 bcf/d w/w to 3.8 bcf/d. The drop comes as the NGTL system undergoes maintenance from 6–14 November at the Gordondale and Groundbirch East interconnects to Westcoast. The work will cut up to 0.6 bcf/d in flows, and on 5 November caused Westcoast Station 2 prices to close at an all-time low of -$0.38/mmbtu.
|Fig 1: Regional flows and fundamentals model, bcf|
|Source: Energy Aspects|
|Fig 2: Balance forecasts, bcf/d|
|Source: Energy Aspects|