Mexican liquids output rose m/m by 10 thousand b/d to 2.06 mb/d in September, with the 69 thousand b/d y/y increase the first since May 2014, but it was still below our expectations as it comes off an incredibly low base—September 2017 output fell to a record low on heavy maintenance and several hurricanes. Super light crude (+85 thousand b/d) led the m/m growth, with heavy crude output up by 36 thousand b/d m/m to 1.1 mb/d. The latter was 0.21 mb/d higher y/y, as September 2017 output was hit by KMZ and Cantarell maintenance. Meanwhile, light output fell m/m by 0.11 mb/d and NGLs output was 0.24 mb/d (-26 thousand b/d y/y).
Crude exports increased m/m by 25 thousand b/d to 1.21 mb/d in September, higher y/y by 47 thousand b/d, led by Maya. Exports to the Americas were up by 0.21 mb/d y/y, while flows to the east were down y/y by 0.14 mb/d at 0.29 mb/d. Refinery runs continued to underperform, falling by 65 thousand b/d m/m to 0.60 mb/d in September. Pemex has awarded 1.4mb of US Bakken crude tenders, in an effort to improve refinery throughput but this will take time. Even though October exports have decreased to 1.16 mb/d, based on Kpler cargo-tracking data, runs are unlikely to have recovered as Salina Cruz and Minatitlan have both had unplanned outages this month. Instead, lower October exports are likely due to hurricane activity in the GoM. Oil demand ripped higher by 86 thousand mb/d y/y to 1.74 mb/d, albeit from a low base. Diesel demand grew y/y by 0.14 mb/d the strongest growth in our records, adjusted for third-party sales based on preliminary figures. Gasoline demand fell by 66 thousand b/d, while fuel oil demand increased y/y by 3 thousand b/d, although preliminary October data show a sharp drop in fuel oil demand. LPG demand fell y/y to 0.27 mb/d.