Extract from production:
We forecast that Canadian liquids production was higher m/m by 0.1 mb/d at 5.31 mb/d in August, higher y/y by 0.33 mb/d, and that synthetic production was up by 0.1 mb/d as Mildred Lake continued to ramp up after the outage on 20 June. Bitumen production was also up, driven by small increases at Jackfish, both Imperial and CNRL’s Cold Lake facilities, and at Surmont, while NGLs output came in lower by 15 thousand b/d m/m.
Final data show total Canadian liquids production increased by 0.24 mb/d m/m to 5.21 mb/d in July (+0.40 mb/d y/y), compared to our estimate of a 0.21 mb/d m/m decrease. Synthetic crude production fell by 41 thousand b/d m/m as the outage at Mildred Lake kept numbers down. However, increases were seen across the remaining crudes, with bitumen production up by an astounding 0.12 mb/d m/m driven by Christina Lake as well as Imperial’s Cold Lake, and conventional production was also up by 41 thousand b/d m/m. This was contrary to our forecast for lower production, based on both the Mildred Lake outage and extended Jackfish works. Devon has announced that Jackfish is now running at full operational levels after repairs during planned maintenance, so increases are expected going forward. Total crude exports to the US were down by 0.16 mb/d m/m to 3.42 mb/d in July, still higher y/y by 0.15 mb/d. Inventories were reported lower in the month on the back of a 69 thousand b/d m/m rise in runs to 1.76 mb/d.
Extract from demand:
Canadian oil demand fell by 73 thousand b/d y/y to 2.48 mb/d in August led by LPG (-73 thousand b/d y/y), although demand is likely to be revised as LPG numbers are updated.
Canadian gasoline demand fell by 35 thousand b/d y/y to 0.85 mb/d in August, as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was up by 2.8% y/y, following a 3% increase in July. The transportation index was 7.2% higher y/y, driven by a 19.9% y/y increase in the gasoline component of the index. The unemployment rate increased by 0.2 ppts to 6.0%, with British Columbia reporting a 0.3 ppts m/m increase to 5.3%. New vehicle sales increased by 3.1% m/m to 185,000 units, however.