Global supply trends

Published at 17:45 30 Oct 2018 by . Last edited 11:18 22 Aug 2019.

We are delighted to present our new Monthly publication: Global supply trends. Users licensed for the data service can access our liquefaction database and global balances data.

LNG supply continued to post healthy y/y gains, benefiting from the new trains that have come online during Q1 18 to Q3 18. Initial indications are for exports in October to be around 28 Mt, up by a staggering 4.5 Mt y/y due to a combination of new trains and fewer train outages. It was a busy month for news on liquefaction supply as a new train became operational in Australia, and one in the US moved closer to first export. Also, a number of projects either announced an FID (LNG Canada) or made progress towards that milestone.

October has been a busy month for new project developments. The 4.2 Mtpa Ichthys project finally loaded its first cargo, and signs suggest that first gas exports from the 4.5 Mtpa Corpus Christi project are not far away. That bodes well for some incremental supply this winter, and it does come against a period of solid y/y supply increments in the global LNG market.   

Indicative data for September from customs departments and ports put global LNG exports up by 2.0 Mt y/y at 25.0 Mt. For October, the rise in exports looks even higher in our balances, up by 4.5 Mt y/y and 3.3 Mt m/m. The gains in October reflect some trains ramping up or achieving first LNG exports, lower y/y outages and some trains operating at a higher utilisation rate. The strength of October has led us to alter our supply forecasts for the coming months, moving winter supply up by some 6 Mt (although 2 Mt of that was just the October numbers). The biggest single changes are on Australian supply, which now looks to be coming in around the 6 Mtpm level for the coming winter. We had pushed the Ichthys start date all the way back to December given the continual delays, so its first exports starting in October also led to a modest revision. In addition, we have seen stronger supply from the Gladstone project than we had expected, all of which combines to create a much stronger all-round export push from Australia.

For November, we expect exports will be up by 3.0 Mt y/y, with Asia Pacific, Europe and the US all likely to be adding volumes. For all of 2018, this means that LNG supply looks like it will grow by around 25.0 Mt y/y, with 8.8 Mt coming from Australia-Asia, 7.8 Mt from Russia’s Yamal, and 10.4 Mt from the US—helping to offset some losses elsewhere. With plenty of new trains set to come online in 2019 (although some of these look to slip to later in H2 19), our forecast for 2019 is for supply to be up by 27.6 Mt y/y.

Log in to download

Other Global LNG publications

JKM Q1 20 to hold at sub–6 $/mmbtu

Published 3 days ago

2019-12-03 Natural Gas - Global LNG - JKM Q1 20 to hold at sub–6 $/mmbtu cover
Users licensed for the data service can access LNG freight rates by clicking hereNortheast Asian..

Read more

North America – Dec 2019

Published 4 days ago

2019-12-02 Natural Gas - Global LNG - North America – Dec 2019 cover
The US gas market will primarily focus on keeping end-October 2020 stocks below 113 bcm (4.0 tcf)..

Read more

India

Published 1 week ago

2019-11-29 Natural Gas - Global LNG - India cover
Users licensed for the data service can access our India gas supply and power generation data.Ind..

Read more

Middle East & North Africa

Published 1 week ago

2019-11-29 Natural Gas - Global LNG - Middle East & North Africa cover
LNG imports by countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) have fallen m/m in October, a..

Read more

Low prices and FIDs

Published 1 week ago

2019-11-29 Natural Gas - Global LNG - Low prices and FIDs cover
While the global gas market looks set for a more sideways period in terms of trading until the en..

Read more