Thursday’s EIA report (week ended 5 Oct) – EA Final Estimate: +92 bcf
- We forecast Thursday’s EIA report will show an injection of 92 bcf. Total US production fell by 0.3 bcf/d w/w as Appalachia receipts dropped, by 0.5 bcf/d w/w, to 29.2 bcf/d, the region’s lowest weekly average since August. Output gains of 0.1 bcf/d w/w each in the Anadarko and the Gulf of Mexico helped offset some of the Appalachia losses. The start of heating load saw res-com demand rise, by 0.3 bcf/d w/w. The reference week also saw nuclear outages hit their second-highest weekly level of 2018. There were 16 daily aGW of potential nuclear generation lost (15 aGW above early August’s 2018 low for outages), helping gas power burn rise by 1.0 bcf/d w/w.
Next Thursday’s report (week ending 12 Oct) – EA Estimate: +84 bcf
- We project that the current week will see an injection of 84 bcf. A 0.6 bcf/d w/w rise in power burn will help push the injection rate down. Heat in the Mid-Atlantic is helping lift power demand as temperatures in New York are forecast to rise above 80°F, more than 10°F above historical norms. Growing nuclear outages will also help gas power burn, with the Peach Bottom and Brown’s Ferry reactors adding another 2.7 in daily aGW in capacity lost as they begin refuelling.
- Total US production is on track to rise, by 0.3 bcf/d w/w, to 84.0 bcf/d, as Appalachia erases some of last week’s decline with 0.3 bcf/d in w/w growth. The 6 October start-up of Transco’s Atlantic Sunrise and the western portion of TransCanada’s WB XPress have boosted flows in the region, with Atlantic Sunrise averaging 0.8 bcf/d in flows since entering service (though part of this is likely redirected from other pipes). Other growth regions include the Haynesville, Rockies, Arkla, and East Texas basins, which will each rise by 0.1 bcf/d w/w.
- Production would be even higher were it not for shut-ins that Hurricane Michael is causing in the Gulf of Mexico. Projected to make landfall on the Florida Panhandle as a Category 2 storm on 10 October, Michael forced Exxon, BP, Anadarko, and Chevron to evacuate personnel from platforms in the Gulf on 8–9 October. Flow data show that receipts in the Gulf dropped, by 0.3 bcf/d d/d, to 2.3 bcf/d on 9 October, after averaging 3.4 bcf/d in the reference week.
- We project net imports from Canada will rise by 0.3 bcf/d w/w. The Fort Nelson gas plant ended 18 days of maintenance on 4 October, restoring 0.15 bcf/d in capacity to Westcoast Energy’s flows through the Sumas border point.
- We forecast LNG feedgas demand will rise by 0.1 bcf/d w/w to 3.0 bcf/d. Sabine Pass continues to operate above 90% capacity at 2.9 bcf/d, while maintenance at Cove Point is scheduled to end on 11 October, which will see the facility receive some feedgas in the current week.
|Fig 1: Regional flows and fundamentals model, bcf|
|Source: Energy Aspects|
|Fig 2: Balance forecasts, bcf/d|
|Source: Energy Aspects|