Mexican liquids production fell m/m by 35 thousand b/d to 2.05 mb/d in August, lower y/y by 0.14 mb/d. Light crude led the m/m decline, with production down by 16 thousand b/d, likely due to hefty declines in Olmeca production, as super-light output fell m/m by 81 thousand b/d and light production increased by 65 thousand b/d m/m. Heavy crude output was also weak, falling by 9 thousand b/d m/m to 1.1 mb/d, lower y/y by 11 thousand b/d. NGL production, at 0.24 mb/d, was down m/m by 11 thousand b/d and lower y/y by 30 thousand b/d.
Crude exports increased m/m by 25 thousand b/d to 1.18 mb/d in August. This was 67 thousand b/d higher y/y thanks to an increase in Maya exports while Mexico did not export any light crude. Exports to Asia were 0.1 mb/d lower y/y but up by 48 thousand mb/d m/m, as the east is scrambling for sour grades. Meanwhile, as refinery runs continued to underperform, we estimate August runs were 0.62 mb/d, down y/y by 0.11 mb/d, supporting the increase in exports. Runs are unlikely to have recovered in September as crude exports have increased to 1.26 mb/d, based on Kpler cargo-tracking data, up m/m by 83 thousand b/d. Pemex continues to have refining issues, with runs consistently below 50% of capacity, due to lack of funding for repairs and low domestic light crude production. However, oil demand ripped higher by 0.10 mb/d y/y to 1.78 mb/d, as economic activity has improved—business confidence hit 51.3, the highest level since 2014—leading to higher product imports. Diesel demand increased y/y by 65 thousand b/d, while gasoline demand fell by 54 thousand b/d, adjusted for third-party sales based on preliminary figures. Additionally, fuel oil demand was up by 26 thousand b/d y/y. LPG demand also rose m/m and y/y to 0.28 mb/d.