India oil data – Aug 2018

Indian oil demand fell by 0.13 mb/d m/m to 4.18 mb/d in August, the lowest level in a year as growth was tempered by severe floods in South India, but was higher y/y by 32 thousand b/d. However, these figures are distorted by weak readings for petcoke and other oils while demand for the main four products was robust, rising y/y by 0.13 mb/d. August gasoline demand totalled 0.65 mb/d, higher y/y by 47 thousand b/d. Car sales were weak in August, with floods impacting states in the northeast and south of the country. Auto manufacturers typically generate 5-10% of their sales from the southern state of Kerala for instance, which was devastated by floods in August. Diesel demand totalled 1.49 mb/d, higher y/y by 60 thousand b/d. In August, India recorded the best monsoon for the month in the last five years, despite the national average registering a 6.4% deficit. Combined jet/kero demand totalled 0.25 mb/d, higher y/y by 18 thousand b/d. Kerosene demand growth turned positive y/y for the first time since December 2014. India's domestic air traffic grew by 18.3% y/y in July, the 47th consecutive month of double-digit growth. LPG demand rose by 22 thousand b/d y/y to 0.80 mb/d. However, demand growth was likely capped by the eight-day nationwide trucking strike (20–27 July), which limited the terminals’ ability to clear LPG storage tanks, causing imports and demand to slip into August.

Refinery runs fell m/m by 0.23 mb/d to 5.07 mb/d, (+0.23 mb/d y/y). The Bina refinery went offline mid-month for planned maintenance, reducing throughputs by 0.12 mb/d m/m. BPCL’s Mumbai refinery processed 0.25 mb/d (-43 thousand b/d m/m) and we expect runs at Mumbai to remain constrained until December. September runs are likely to be flat at 5.07 mb/d.