Thursday’s EIA report (week ended 7 Sep) – EA Final Estimate: +69 bcf
- We forecast Thursday’s EIA report will show an injection of 69 bcf, a 6 bcf w/w increase as total demand fell by 1.2 bcf/d w/w. The Labor Day holiday pushed gas demand in the industrial sector down by 0.6 bcf/d w/w, while national gas power burn decreased by 0.6 bcf/d w/w amid moderate temperatures across most of the country outside of the Northeast. Total Lower 48 output grew by 0.1 bcf/d w/w to 82.8 bcf/d. Flows on Rover’s newly authorised laterals—Burgettstown and Majorsville—added 0.4 bcf/d starting on 1 September. These Appalachia gains were mostly wiped out by a 0.3 bcf/d w/w drop in Gulf receipts due to shut-ins related to Tropical Storm Gordon.
Next Thursday’s report (week ending 14 Sep) – EA Estimate: +84 bcf
- The current week will see an injection of 84 bcf thanks to a 2.3 bcf/d w/w decline in total demand. A 3.6 bcf/d w/w drop in national gas power burn will be the biggest weight on the demand ledger, due to a 30% w/w fall in population-weighted cooling degree days (CDDs).
- Hurricane Florence, which is projected to make landfall in the Carolinas on 13 September as a Category 4 storm, will also weigh on power demand in the current week. While we do not foresee much impact on production from the storm due to its trajectory towards low-output states in the Southeast, evacuation orders already stretch from South Carolina to Virginia. Indeed, power burn in the Carolinas and Virginia fell by 0.3 bcf/d d/d to 2.4 bcf/d on 11 September, according to our sample, even as CDDs in the South Atlantic remained steady throughout the week.
- We project Appalachia volumes to fall by 0.2 bcf/d w/w to 29.0 bcf/d, the first week without a new basin record since early August. Pigging on Leach XPress near the Lone Oak compressor station in Ohio reduced the pipe’s flows by 0.4 bcf/d to 0.7 bcf/d starting on 5 September and will continue through 12 September. Elsewhere, a 24-inch ETP gathering pipe exploded in Beaver County, PA on 10 September, reducing flows to the connected Rover Pipeline by 0.2 bcf/d d/d.
- We forecast net imports from Canada will fall by 0.5 bcf/d w/w to 4.2 bcf/d. Maintenance at the Woodenhouse compressor station cut interruptible transport on sections of the NGTL system by 0.2 bcf/d between 3-10 September, and renewed work on the Grand Prairie Mainline will see up to 0.6 bcf/d in flows curtailed at the Emerson/Noyes border point between 10-19 September.
- After maintenance to Train 4 at Sabine Pass cut demand at the facility by 0.7 bcf/d between 4-6 September, this week is on pace for a 0.4 bcf/d w/w rise in LNG feedgas intake. Both Sabine and Cove Point will average more than 90% utilisation (2.85 bcf/d and 0.7 bcf/d, respectively), while feedgas flows to Corpus Christi started on 5 September and will average 25 mmcf/d this week.
|Fig 1: Regional flows and fundamentals model, bcf|
|Source: Energy Aspects|
|Fig 2: Balance forecasts, bcf/d|
|Source: Energy Aspects|