Mexican liquids production fell m/m by 3 thousand b/d to 2.09 mb/d in July, lower y/y by 0.18 mb/d. Light crude led the way, due to hefty declines in Isthmus and Olmeca production. Heavy crude output also fell sequentially, lower m/m by 2 thousand b/d to 1.07 mb/d, however it did manage to rise y/y by 1 thousand b/d. The majority of the declines occurred offshore, with production down m/m by 3 thousand b/d to 1.52 mb/d. NGL production, at 0.25 mb/d, was up m/m by 3 thousand b/d but was lower y/y by 38 thousand b/d.
Crude exports increased m/m by 46 thousand b/d to 1.16 mb/d in July but were 99 thousand b/d lower y/y due to the absence of Isthmus exports and slightly lower Maya exports. Exports to Asia fell y/y by 0.14 mb/d but rose m/m as demand for sour crudes is rising sharply amid a drop in Iranian and Venezuelan exports. Refinery runs continued to underperform in July, at 0.65 mb/d, down y/y by 21 thousand b/d, as the Madero and Minatitlan refineries are barely operational following unsuccessful major turnarounds late last year. Runs are unlikely to have recovered in August as crude exports rose m/m to 1.18 mb/d, based on Kpler cargo-tracking. Oil demand increased by 61 thousand b/d y/y to 1.72 mb/d. Gasoline demand fell by 38 thousand b/d y/y but diesel demand increased by 40 thousand b/d y/y and fuel oil rose y/y for the first time in eight months. These figures have been adjusted for third-party sales based on preliminary trade data. Demand for ultra-low sulphur diesel imports may rise by up to 0.10 mb/d next year, as new rules will limit diesel sulphur to 15 ppm. One-third of domestically produced diesel is 500 ppm and as refineries are plagued with maintenance issues, imports of low sulphur diesel will have to rise. LPG demand increased by 33 thousand b/d y/y to 0.29 mb/d.