Thursday’s EIA report (week ended 3 Aug) – EA Final Estimate: +44 bcf
- We forecast Thursday’s EIA report will show an injection of 44 bcf. Gas power burn fell by 1.7 bcf/d w/w as national population-weighted cooling degree days (CDDs) came in 10% lower w/w. Total supply was flat w/w at 86.3 bcf/d. Receipts rose by 0.1 bcf/d w/w each in the Gulf of Mexico and the Bakken, though this was offset by a 0.2 bcf/d w/w decline in net imports from Canada. Maintenance on the NGTL’s Edson Mainline, cutting up to 0.4 bcf/d in flows to the Empress/McNeill border point, was originally scheduled to end on 27 July, yet is still ongoing.
Next Thursday’s report (week ending 10 Aug) – EA Estimate: +32 bcf
- We forecast an injection of 32 bcf in the current week as regional heat pushes the injection rate lower w/w. High temperatures above 90°F—5°F above historical norms—are forecast to hover over New York and Washington, DC, this week, driving pop-weighted CDDs in the Mid-Atlantic region up by 50% w/w. We project national gas power burn will rise by 2.1 bcf/d w/w to 38.2 bcf/d.
- Southern California is also experiencing hot weather, with forecasts for high temperatures of 95°F through the week, 10°F above the historical average. Regional demand spiked by 0.6 bcf/d d/d on 6 August, to 2.7 bcf/d, and is projected to average 2.5 bcf/d this week, up by 0.1 bcf/d w/w. This will see the Pacific pull 2 bcf from storage, the fifth consecutive week of withdrawals.
- Despite the intense heat in the US Northeast, we project net imports from Canada will fall by 0.1 bcf/d w/w. The maintenance on NGTL’s Edson Mainline has continued to limit 0.4 bcf/d in capacity, and currently has no set end-date. The drop in flows, combined with record-high power demand in Western Canada, up by 11% y/y, is keeping more gas on the northern side of the border.
- We forecast total Lower 48 production will rise by 0.3 bcf/d w/w to a record weekly average of 81.1 bcf/d for the current week. The gains will be concentrated in the South Central, with 0.1 bcf/d in w/w growth projected each from the Permian, Anadarko, Haynesville, and South Texas basins.
- The growth in production will come despite Appalachia receipts falling by 0.1 bcf/d w/w due to maintenance. Columbia Gas will lose up to 0.4 bcf/d in flows between 7-14 August due to work on Line 1983 in West Virginia, while an unplanned outage at Texas Eastern’s Somerset, Ohio compressor station between 3-7 August cut 0.2 bcf/d in regional capacity.
- LNG feedgas demand is on track to fall by 0.2 bcf/d w/w to 3.2 bcf/d. While Cove Point is on pace to average a flat w/w 0.7 bcf/d in feedgas intake during the current week, flows to Sabine Pass fell by 0.4 bcf/d d/d on 6-7 August to a two-month low of 2.1 bcf/d.
|Fig 1: Regional flows and fundamentals model, bcf|
|Source: Energy Aspects|
|Fig 2: Balance forecasts, bcf/d|
|Source: Energy Aspects|