Extract from production:
The big news in Canada has continued to be the outage at the Syncrude Mildred Lake upgrader. The 0.35 mb/d facility experienced a power outage on 20 June from a blown transformer, strengthening the Canadian crude complex. Synthetic crude rallied by $1.70 per barrel vs WTI CMA, and WCS strengthened by $2.30 per barrel vs WTI CMA in the first five days following the incident. On 9 July, Suncor issued a press release clarifying the timeframe of the outage. Production was expected to return at reduced rates during the second half of July, with one coker producing 0.15 mb/d. Suncor managed to bring the 0.15 mb/d coker online on 16 July, 10 days prior to initial plans. The second 0.10 mb/d coker is expected to restart during the first half of August. However, coke removal is required on the latter unit due to the nature of the shutdown, so Suncor is looking into advancing planned maintenance from autumn for the smaller coker. Synthetic crude production is estimated to be approximately 60-70% of capacity for August and the plant should ramp up to full production in early-to-mid-September. As a result, we reduced our August synthetic production forecast by 0.10 mb/d to 0.99 mb/d.
Extract from demand:
Canadian oil demand fell by 36 thousand b/d y/y to 2.33 mb/d in May, a third straight monthly decline. However, while overall demand has been declining, demand for the key transportation fuels has been relatively healthy in both April and May, with gasoline, diesel and jet demand rising by a combined 25 thousand b/d in May. LPG remains the main drag on overall demand, with the usual sizeable upward revisions not apparent in recent months. Indeed, April LPG demand remained down by almost 50% y/y at 58 thousand b/d, while May’s reading was down by 27 thousand b/d y/y, offsetting the gains in transportation fuels.