US Department of Energy

Published at 17:43 11 Jul 2018 by

Extract from crude oil:

US commercial crude stocks fell by a massive 12.6 mb w/w (compared to seasonal draws of 4.3 mb) to 405.2 mb as stocks in all five PADDs were lower w/w. The largest draws were seen in PADD 3, where stocks fell by 7.2 mb w/w to 208.8 mb, the largest draw since October 2017. This pushed PADD 3 storage utilisation down to just over 45% compared to lows of 41% seen in December 2013 based on a data series that stretches back to 2011. Stocks cannot continue drawing at this rate without pushing PADD 3 stocks to operational minimum levels over the summer and so exports have to come off during periods of maximum runs, which we expect to occur over July and August. Cushing drew by 2.1 mb w/w to 25.7 mb while PADD 1 saw a draw of 2.4 mb w/w to 12.7 mb. Imports plummeted by 1.6 mb/d w/w to 7.4 mb/d as combined arrivals from LatAm fell by 0.6 mb/d but imports from the Middle East were higher by 0.3 mb/d driven by Saudi Arabia, up by 0.4 mb/d at 1.1 mb/d. Exports came off by 0.3 mb/d w/w but remained above 2.0 mb/d. Refinery runs were essentially unchanged w/w, coming in at 17.7 mb/d.

Extract from oil products:

US gasoline stocks fell for a second straight week, down by 0.7 mb w/w to 239.0 mb, although overall inventories are higher than a year ago. PADD 1 stocks are now higher y/y for the first time since October 2017. USEC inventories rose by 1.0 mb w/w to 66.5 mb as imports into the USEC rebounded by 0.19 mb/d w/w to 0.75 mb/d. With the window to move summer grade material from Europe into the US only gradually drawing to a close over the coming weeks, European departures should remain high and with at least one and perhaps two Saudi gasoline cargoes also destined for the USEC in August, waterborne arrivals should remain relatively elevated over the next month or so. RBOB stocks in PADD 3 are also high, so deliveries of summer-grade RBOB up the Colonial pipeline should remain strong. Notwithstanding several PADD 3 refinery outages, Colonial also returned to allocation for the first time in two weeks yesterday. Barring the peaks of summer demand in the coming weeks, supplies look heavy.

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