Our Europe, Middle East & Africa Quarterly (EMEAQ) provides comprehensive analysis of the EMEA region, examining key topics in depth and providing a detailed guide to regional supply, demand, trade flows and downstream capacity. Each quarter, ‘In Focus’ pieces delve into key issues that will impact the market in the near and medium term.
In this edition:
- In Focus (I): As OPEC gathers to meet in Vienna for the 174th ordinary meeting, in what is shaping up to be one of the most political OPEC gathering in years, all eyes will be on Iran. In the first part of our two-part In Focus on the geopolitical impact of US sanctions on Iran, we argue that a controlled escalation of Iran–US tensions is the most likely scenario for the coming months.
- In Focus (II): In our view, the re-imposition of US sanctions will sharply cut Iranian exports, in turn forcing Iran to shut-in excess production. This is precisely why Iran is opposed to any output hike at the OPEC meeting, as we explore in the second part of the two-part In Focus on the impact of US sanction on Iranian crude production and exports.
- Macroeconomic outlook: While OPEC supply disruptions are on the rise, there are a few chinks in the armour for demand too. European demand growth has slowed somewhat in the year-to-April compared to 2017, but more worrying is the slowdown in the macroeconomic backdrop and the rising risk of a sharp slowdown in 2019.
- Outlook for oil products: We focus on Nigeria’s downstream, exploring NNPC’s novel plan to use a sort of ‘maintenance-for-product’ swap to boost utilisation rates to 90% by end-2019, equating to a 0.35 mb/d increase in runs from current levels. Even if NNPC’s target looks highly ambitious, the potential for an uptick in runs at existing plants looks far greater than in the recent past.
- Outlook for crude: Looking at Angolan oil production, we delve into the accelerating decline rates that are becoming increasingly important drivers of global crude production trends. Angola has been particularly affected, with August exports at a record low of 1.33 mb/d.
EMEAQ also provides a unique and comprehensive overview of key regional data, focusing on: demand, refining, supply, trade flows and prices, including domestic consumption by country and by oil product for key European, Middle Eastern and African countries; refining capacity and upcoming projects by country; refined products output; and crude output by country, with a detailed focus on the largest regional players.