Extract from production:
We forecast that Canadian liquids production fell by 0.4 mb/d m/m to 4.8 mb/d in April, but this was still higher y/y by 0.5 mb/d. The reduction came as upgrader maintenance at CNRL Horizon, Shell Scotford, and Syncrude Mildred Lake led to a 0.3 mb/d m/m fall in synthetics output. Non-upgraded bitumen production was also lower by 0.2 mb/d m/m due to planned maintenance to align with upgraders running at reduced rates. In-situ production fell by 51 thousand b/d m/m, as producers slowed output due to wide differentials. Conventional offshore output was up by 10 thousand b/d m/m to 0.3 mb/d, however, as Hebron’s production ramped up. We expect Canadian rail exports to have increased by 35 thousand b/d m/m, as pipelines remained full. Canadian crude stocks are forecasted to have built in April as spring refinery works continued.
Final data show total March liquids output was 5.3 mb/d, 0.48 mb/d higher y/y vs our forecast of 0.46 mb/d. March crude output of 3.6 mb/d was slightly higher than our forecast of 3.5 mb/d as conventional output was higher than expected. Canadian crude stocks built by 3.4 mb in March as flat crude production was offset by lower refinery runs and higher C5 and condensate output. Runs were down by 37 thousand b/d m/m to 1.7 mb/d (+0.1 mb/d y/y) on TARs at Regina, Burnaby, and Scotford. Actual runs were just 3 thousand b/d above our March forecast. Bitumen output (+41 thousand b/d) and in-situ output (+17 thousand b/d) were both up m/m. Total crude exports to the US were up m/m by 10 thousand b/d to 3.4 mb/d. Pipeline volumes were up 76 thousand b/d while non-pipeline volumes fell by 65 thousand b/d to 0.3 mb/d.
Extract from demand:
Canadian oil demand fell by 61 thousand b/d y/y to 2.07 mb/d in April, though final estimates are likely to show a modest y/y increase in demand, with LPG demand consistently underestimated in the first cut of the data—March LPG demand was revised up by 32 thousand b/d to 0.12 mb/d. Indeed, demand for the four main products rose y/y by 41 thousand b/d in April as activity rebounded from this year’s earlier Easter holiday period.