Thursday’s EIA report (week ended 8 June) – EA Final Estimate: +90 bcf
- We forecast Thursday’s EIA report will show an 90 bcf injection. Total supply declined by 0.8 bcf/d w/w, to 84.2 bcf/d. Net imports from Canada fell by 0.6 bcf/d w/w to 5.3 bcf/d, as the start-up of Rover Phase 2 on 1 June saw the pipe send 0.7 bcf/d onto Vector to Dawn. Total supply was also depressed by maintenance on El Paso Natural Gas, with work on the Wink and Puckett stations, as well as the pipe’s Line 2000 combining to push Permian and San Juan receipts down by 0.2 bcf/d and 0.1 bcf/d w/w respectively.
Next Thursday’s report (week ending 15 Jun) – EA Estimate: +78 bcf
- We forecast that the current week will see an injection of 78 bcf. Rising temperatures are behind the falling injection rate, as power burn is projected to increase by 1.3 bcf/d w/w. Population-weighted cooling degree days are forecast to jump by 20% w/w, as high temperatures above 95°F settle over Texas. The rise in gas use in the power sector is all the more impressive given there is only one nuclear plant currently offline in the entire country, the 1.5 MW Grand Gulf reactor in Mississippi, representing a new five-year low for total nuclear outages in the month of June.
- A force majeure has been in place throughout the current week on Columbia Gas Transmission’s Leach XPress after a 7 June explosion ruptured a section of the 1.3 bcf/d capacity pipe. Appalachia receipts are on pace to rise by 0.1 bcf/d w/w despite the disruption, as gas is diverted onto other pipelines. Flow data shows a 0.15 bcf/d w/w rise in receipts on each of Rockies Express and Tallgrass, while Rover’s second mainline is also taking some of Leach’s lost volumes.
- Net imports from Canada are set to fall again, by 0.2 bcf/d w/w to 5.1 bcf/d. We expect Rover deliveries to Vector to rise by 0.1 bcf/d w/w to 0.8 bcf/d in the current week. The 1.6 bcf/d in exports from the US to Canada at the connected St. Clair border crossing in Michigan on 11 June was the highest export level the point has seen during the injection season since 2013.
- The increase in flows from Rover will help the Dawn storage hub close its y/y storage gap, which stood at 55 bcf at the outset of June. Our flow sample from Dawn, which covers 60% of injection activity at the facility, shows the injection rate will rise by 0.3 bcf/d w/w to an average of 1.2 bcf/d, the highest weekly level of gas heading into inventories since July 2016.
- We forecast LNG feedgas demand will rise by 0.1 bcf/d w/w to 2.9 bcf/d. Sabine Pass demand is on track to average 2.2 bcf/d—only 75% of the facility’s capacity—for the fourth consecutive week. We project Cove Point demand will rise by 0.1 bcf/d in the current week to 0.7 bcf/d, as three tankers are en route to the facility to load cargoes in the next two weeks.
|Fig 1: Regional flows and fundamentals model, bcf|
|Source: Energy Aspects|
|Fig 2: Balance forecasts, bcf/d|
|Source: Energy Aspects|