Thursday’s EIA report (week ended 11 May) – EA Final Estimate: +102 bcf
- We forecast Thursday’s EIA report will show the season’s first triple-digit injection, of 102 bcf. Warm weather across the US sent gas-weighted heating degree days down by 55% w/w, causing res-com demand to fall by 2.9 bcf/d w/w, which trumped a 2.7 bcf/d rise in power burn. LNG feedgas was the other demand sector that lost ground, falling by 0.4 bcf/d w/w after Sabine Pass flows fell by 0.3 bcf/d d/d on both 7 and 8 May to 2.3 bcf/d.
Next Thursday’s report (week ending 18 May) – EA Estimate: +89 bcf
- The injection rate will decline to 89 bcf in the current week, as power burn soars by an additional 1.4 bcf/d w/w to 26.1 bcf/d. High temperatures approaching 100°F (38°C) throughout Texas have seen gas deliveries to a visible sample of power plants in the state rise from 0.95 bcf/d last week to above 1.2 bcf/d on 15 May. The South Central heat is forecast to stay throughout current week, helping boost total demand by 1.7 bcf/d w/w to 71.2 bcf/d.
- We project net imports from Canada will fall by 0.1 bcf/d w/w as maintenance continues to strangle outflows from the WCSB. Westcoast Energy announced a one-day total shutdown of the 0.2 bcf/d Fort Nelson Gas Plant on 15 May, while work between 14-20 May at the Meikle River compressor station is limiting flows by 0.4 bcf/d on the NGTL system. Our flow sample indicates WCSB output fell to a 2018 low of 13.6 bcf/d on 14 May. Daily storage volumes reported by NOVA Gas Transmission show small injections of 0.2 bcf/d this week, which, while a contrast to last week’s counter-seasonal withdrawals, is still below the five-year average for May of 0.9 bcf/d.
- Receipts in the Gulf of Mexico fell by 0.2 bcf/d d/d on 15 May due to maintenance at the Neptune gas plant. The outage, which is schedule to last until 17 May, is restricting flows on the Nautilus Pipeline to 0.3 bcf/d (from 0.6 bcf/d), and will see GoM output slump by 0.2 bcf/d w/w to 2.4 bcf/d.
- We forecast LNG feedgas demand will rise by 0.3 bcf/d w/w to 3.6 bcf/d. Cove Point is on track to average 0.7 bcf/d for the week after loading the Maran Gas Alexandria tanker on 13 May, with the Maran Gas Sparta due to arrive next week as well. Sabine Pass has recovered from a dip in feedgas takes in the reference week and will average a near-capacity 3.0 bcf/d in the current week.
- SoCalGas began station improvement maintenance at the Playa del Rey storage facility on 11 May, restricting injections by 0.4 bcf/d. The work is schedule to last until 22 June. Slumping demand should free up more gas to move into storage, but the restriction at Playa del Rey will limit the injection rate to 8 bcf in the Pacific region. SoCal demand hit a six-month low of 1.9 bcf/d on 13 May, though the utility expects flat w/w demand of 2.2 bcf/d.
|Fig 1: Regional flows and fundamentals model, bcf|
|Source: Energy Aspects|
|Fig 2: Balance forecasts, bcf/d|
|Source: Energy Aspects|