Brazilian February liquids output, ex-biofuels, was pegged at 2.73 mb/d, lower y/y by 55 thousand b/d. Declines in the post-salt once again drove crude output lower, with the frequency of maintenance also stepping up. In February, platforms P-18 and P-20 in the Marlim field were impacted by turnarounds, helping push down Campos production by 0.24 mb/d (17%) to 1.23 mb/d. In the pre-salt, FPSO Cidade de Angra dos Reis went offline again in February, having only recently completed a heavy turnaround in 2017. We have reduced our 2018 Brazilian crude growth forecast to 0.13 mb/d (from 0.23 mb/d) to account for a heavier-than-expected maintenance schedule. Meanwhile, the three new systems that were due online in Q1 18 have all been pushed into Q2 18. First oil from the 35 thousand b/d Atlanta field is expected this month, hitting 20 thousand b/d from two wells. The 0.1 mb/d Tartaruga Verde system received an installation licence from Ibama in March, which should mean production commences shortly after the Cidade de Campos dos Goytacazes FPSO arrives at the field. Finally, the 0.15 mb/d Lula North (P-67) FPSO, already delayed from December 2017 for technical reasons, is expected to begin production in Q2 18 as the unit is now believed to have arrived in Brazil.
Brazilian oil demand rose by 22 thousand b/d y/y to 2.3 mb/d in February, led by diesel (+19 thousand b/d to 0.93 mb/d). Gasoline demand remained weak, lower y/y by 93 thousand b/d at 0.7 mb/d and was not fully compensated for by the 84 thousand b/d y/y rise in ethanol demand, leaving combined gasoline and ethanol demand lower y/y by 9 thousand b/d. Refinery runs were lower y/y by 0.15 mb/d, while crude exports were sharply down y/y (-0.65 mb/d) from a record 2017 base. According to Kpler cargo tracking, crude exports recovered in March, at over 1 mb/d.