Extract from crude oil:
Crude stocks rose by a modest 1.9 mb w/w to 420.3 mb, taking the total January stockdraw to 3.3 mb, compared to our forecasted draw of 11.2 mb and a five-year average build of 18.3 mb for the month. The weekly build comes despite a huge 0.78 mb/d w/w increase in runs to 16.8 mb/d, in turn resulting in average January runs of 16.65 mb/d, some 0.1 mb/d lower than our forecast as cold weather resulted in number of unplanned outages along the Gulf Coast last month. Imports dropped by 0.54 mb/d w/w, driven by a 0.56 mb/d w/w drop in PADD 3 arrivals, while exports dropped by 0.48 mb/d w/w to 1.3 mb/d. We expect exports to remain steady at 1.28 mb/d in February before dropping by 0.15 mb/d m/m in March on softer export economics. However, the March dip should be short-lived, with the WTI-MEH forward strip more than compensating for the rally in WTI-Brent from April onwards. Production ripped higher by 0.33 mb/d w/w according to the EIA’s model. Importantly, this model is not real production—it is a reflection of the agency’s upward revision to its 2018 STEO production forecast of 0.33 mb/d and a higher-than-expected November production number in Petroleum Supply Monthly.
Extract from oil products:
After a strong counter-seasonal decline in last week’s data, US gasoline stocks rose by 3.4 mb w/w to 245.5 mb, pushing stocks back above the five-year average. PADD 1 led the gains, rising by 1.6 mb w/w as imports into the USEC jumped by 0.26 mb/d w/w to a 17-week high of 0.70 mb/d. PADD 2 stocks also rose w/w, up by just under 1.0 mb w/w as regional refinery runs increased by 0.13 mb/d, though refinery maintenance should cap runs through February. Exxon advanced planned work at their 0.24 mb/d Joliet refinery to early-February and HollyFrontier’s Tulsa refinery is scheduled to begin maintenance on an 85 thousand b/d CDU by the end of this week. USGC stocks increased by a relatively modest 0.1 mb w/w, helped by a recovery in exports.