Lower 48 gas storage

Published at 18:40 9 Jan 2018 by . Last edited 15:12 5 Nov 2018.

Thursday’s EIA report (week ended 5 Jan) – EA Final Estimate: -341 bcf

  • We project a record 341 bcf withdrawal, 53 bcf above the previous high recorded in January 2014.
  • As low temperatures went below 0°F (-18°C) across the eastern US, total demand soared by 18.3 bcf/d w/w. A nearly 25% w/w increase in gas-weighted heating degree days (GWHDDs) pushed res-com demand up by 12.5 bcf/d w/w to 63.1 bcf/d. Power burn also increased, by 4.1 bcf/d w/w to 28.7 bcf/d, a spike partially attributed to the 3-4 January winter storm. Half of the forced power outages caused by the storm in the Northeast were at coal-fired facilities, while Massachusetts’s Pilgrim nuclear reactor also shut on 3 January due to the storm, adding 0.2 bcf/d to gas demand.
  • The cold was a litmus test for LNG feedgas, as operations at Sabine Pass had not yet faced prolonged freezing temperatures and related cash price spikes throughout the US. Feedgas fell by just 0.1 bcf/d w/w to 3.0 bcf/d.
  • Freeze-offs pushed production down by 3.2 bcf/d w/w to 74.2 bcf/d. Receipts dropped w/w in several regions: the Rockies (-0.3 bcf/d), Bakken (-0.3 bcf/d), Haynesville (-0.4 bcf/d), and Permian (-0.6 bcf/d). Appalachia was particularly hard hit, dropping by 1.6 bcf/d w/w despite the start of 0.7 bcf/d in flows on the Leach XPress pipeline on 1 January. LNG sendout and Canadian net imports helped ease the losses, rising by 0.7 bcf/d and 1.5 bcf/d w/w respectively.

Next Thursday’s report (week ending 12 Jan) – EA Estimate: -196 bcf

  • The withdrawal will moderate as the eastern US emerges from the freeze. Chicago, New York, and Boston saw temperatures rise above freezing on 8 January for the first time since Christmas, which will help cut res-com demand by 15.1 bcf/d w/w. GWHDDs will fall by nearly 25% w/w, and GWHDD projections fell by 10% versus last week’s projections, which called for colder weather.
  • Power burn will be the other big demand mover, and is set to drop by 3.9 bcf/d w/w. LNG feedgas demand will fall by 0.8 bcf/d w/w this week to an average of 2.2 bcf/d, as unplanned maintenance to the Gillis Compressor station cut flows to Sabine Pass to 1.3 bcf/d between 6-8 January.
  • Production will rebound as freeze-offs ease, pushing output up by 1.7 bcf/d w/w. The Permian will grow by 0.6 bcf/d w/w, returning to its pre-freeze level of 3.6 bcf/d. Haynesville receipts are forecast to add 0.3 bcf/d w/w, while the Rockies and Bakken are each set to gain by 0.1 bcf/d w/w. In total 30-35 bcf in Lower 48 production was lost due to the freeze-offs since late December.
  • Canadian net imports will fall by 1.7 bcf/d w/w to 5.8 bcf/d despite the end of the freeze-offs in the WCSB, where receipts rose by 1.0 bcf/d w/w to the pre-cold output level of 15.5 bcf/d.
Fig 1: Regional flows and fundamentals model, bcf
Source: Energy Aspects
Fig 2: Balance forecasts, bcf/d
Source: Energy Aspects

Log in to download

Other North America publications

Mexico – Gas is not coming to town

Published 1 hour ago

2018-12-18 Natural North America - Mexico – Gas is not coming to town cover
Users licensed for the data service can access our Mexico gas balances by clicking here.We foreca..

Read more

Annual Gas Prize Crossword

Published 1 day ago

2018-12-17 Annual Gas Prize Crossword cover
Thank you for your support and reading our research this year. We wish everyone a happy festive p..

Read more

Rig report

Published 4 days ago

No cover
Within this report you will be able to review the latest figures published by Baker Hughes by gas..

Read more

Ho, ho, ho and a bottle of rum

Published 5 days ago

2018-12-13 Natural Gas - North America - Ho, ho, ho and a bottle of rum cover
Today’s report (week ended 7 Dec): EIA: -77 bcf, EA: -79 bcfTo true up to today’s EIA print, we d..

Read more

Lower 48 gas storage

Published 6 days ago

2018-12-11 Natural Gas - North America - Lower 48 gas storage cover
Thursday’s EIA report (week ended 7 Dec) – EA Final Estimate: -79 bcfWe forecast Thursday’s EIA r..

Read more