Thursday’s EIA report (week ended 6 Oct) – EA Final Estimate – +82 bcf
- Our forecast for tomorrow’s EIA report is an 82 bcf injection, nearly double last week’s 42 bcf injection due to a 5.9 bcf/d reduction in demand w/w. The demand decrease was driven by a substantial reduction in power burn, which fell by 8.4 bcf/d w/w to average 24.5 bcf/d.
- Supply was flat w/w at 74.0 bcf/d as a fall in Appalachian production was offset by growth in other regions. The 0.5 bcf/d w/w loss in the Appalachian region is due to the Marcellus, where receipts were lower by 0.5 bcf/d w/w. Utica receipts were flat. GoM offshore receipts nudged up by 0.3 bcf/d (despite lower receipts on Thursday ahead of Hurricane Nate). Both the Rockies and Permian were up by 0.2 bcf/d w/w. Canadian net imports increased by 0.1 bcf/d as production inched up w/w by 0.1 bcf/d despite maintenance on the Westcoast system.
- Injections in the Pacific region were down because of an outage at the North Needles facility. On 1 October, an explosion caused by a gas leak resulted in SoCalGas declaring force majeure, dropping capacity to zero (a 0.5 bcf/d loss).
Next Thursday’s report (week ending 13 Oct) – EA Estimate: +50 bcf
- The injection rate will nearly halve in the current week due to Hurricane Nate lowering U.S. production by nearly 12 bcf w/w. For today, our flow sample shows 1.8 bcf/d of flows in the offshore GoM, 1.3 bcf/d below a pre-storm baseline. For the GoM onshore, our sample shows receipts for today down 0.2 bcf/d from a pre-storm baseline. A 2.8 bcf/d rise in power burn due to unseasonably warm weather has also tightened balances.
- LNG feedgas represents the other big demand swing. With the fourth train at Sabine Pass now operational (after receiving FERC approval last week), feedgas was up by 0.7 bcf/d w/w.
- Maintenance on Westcoast Pipeline’s Compressor Station 4B has continued, which has hampered flows south on the T line. Works at 4B have weighed on basis, but available capacity is increasing. Currently, net Canadian exports are 0.1 bcf/d higher w/w, but going forward exports could be impacted by works on Transcanada Compressor 7, which has impacted flows through Kingsgate. In spite of maintenance, WCSB output is up 0.2 bcf/d w/w.
- Flows on Rover trended near 1.0 bcf/d from 9 October as FERC authorised 1.2 bcf/d to enter into service. Previously, the capacity was 0.7 bcf/d on Phase 1a. Total flows onto the ANR and Panhandle pipelines are only moderately higher (0.1-0.2 bcf/d) given the additional capacity, indicating that some of this gas is merely shifting off of REX, rather than incremental output.
|Fig 1: Regional flows and fundamentals model, bcf|
|Source: Energy Aspects|
|Fig 2: Balance forecasts, bcf/d|
|Source: Energy Aspects|