Our Middle East & Africa Quarterly provides comprehensive analysis of the region, examining key topics in depth and providing a detailed guide to regional supply, demand, trade flows and downstream capacity across the Middle East & Africa. Each quarter, focus pieces delve into key issues that will impact the market in the near and medium term.
In this edition:
- In Focus 1: Most African countries neither produce nor consume much fuel oil, but last year’s IMO decision to slash the maximum sulphur content in global marine fuels from 2020 will still create clear winners and losers on the continent. The low-sulphur straight-run fuel oil exporters of North and West Africa are set to benefit, while South Africa’s refineries look particularly vulnerable.
- In Focus 2: Low oil prices have been a boon for consumers, leading to rampant Asian and OECD demand growth, but key oil producers, including Saudi Arabia, have suffered. Nevertheless, there are signs that the worst of the Kingdom’s demand declines are behind it.
- Macroeconomic outlook: The political row between Qatar and other members of the GCC has had only a limited effect on LNG, oil and condensate flows, but Qatari oil product demand has come under considerable pressure, particularly jet.
- Outlook for oil products: Once the rising star of global oil product demand growth, Africa has become something of a laggard since 2015. The continent will recover from here, but the shift to cleaner fuels and vehicles, combined with ongoing subsidy withdrawal, will keep a lid on growth in the long term.
- Outlook for crude: East Africa was once talked up as the new frontier for oil production. But three years of $50 oil, security concerns, uncertainty over revenue-sharing arrangements and competing export pipeline proposals have delayed new wells into the next decade.
The Middle East & Africa Quarterly also provides a unique and comprehensive overview of key regional data, focusing on: demand, refining, supply, trade flows and prices, including domestic consumption by country and by oil product for key Middle Eastern and African countries; refining capacity and upcoming projects by country, and refined products output; and crude output by country, with a detailed focus on the largest regional oil sector. We now also publish detailed analysis on Sub-Saharan African markets, given their growing importance in determining global product flows.