Norwegian liquids production fell m/m again in June, by 0.12 mb/d to 1.89 mb/d, but was still higher y/y by 73 thousand b/d due to an exceptionally low 2016 base. While crude output came in higher y/y by 0.11 mb/d, both NGLs and condensate were lower y/y, by 27 thousand b/d and 7 thousand b/d, respectively. This was likely the result of lower gas output, as issues at the Troll field curtailed production for several days in mid-June. Indeed, Norwegian gas production came in at 8.63 bcm, lower m/m for the second consecutive month, by 0.46 bcm (5%). Also weighing on June output was an unplanned shutdown at the Gjoa field, and its tie-back Vega, for the last 10 days of the month, following a gas leak at the former. The two fields, with a combined 2016 output average of 90 thousand b/d, feed into the Troll crude blend. The m/m reduction in Norwegian liquids production also coincided with field maintenance stepping up, including at the Gullfaks platform, which went offline for two weeks at the start of the month. June’s loading programme reflected the planned maintenance, with Gullfaks falling back m/m by 46 thousand b/d to 0.11 mb/d, before loadings pick back up to 0.16 mb/d in July. Nevertheless, H1 17 output has averaged 2.04 mb/d, which is 55 thousand b/d higher than in H1 16 and slightly above our expectations. Strong production from newer fields such as Edvard Grieg, Goliat, and Ivar Aasen (combined year-to-May output of 0.19 mb/d), has been the driving force of the y/y rise.
Looking ahead, the start-up of the 60 thousand b/d Gina Krog field should provide a boost to output in H2 17, after first oil was achieved on 30 June, while ramp-ups at the aforementioned recent start-ups will continue to provide support, although the 0.1 mb/d Goliat field is scheduled to be offline through much of September for planned maintenance.