Key agency forecasts

Published at 11:51 13 Jul 2017 by

This week the key agency forecasts have been published. The EIA STEO was published on Tuesday, OPEC published MOMR yesterday and the IEA published OMR this morning.

The key agency reports for July pegged demand growth estimates for 2017 at broadly similar levels to our own of 1.5 mb/d, with the EIA trimming to 1.47 mb/d and the IEA raising its estimate back up to 1.4 mb/d. The OPEC Secretariat remains the outlier, with growth at 1.27 mb/d. For 2018, estimates are broadly unchanged at 1.3 mb/d (OPEC), 1.62 mb/d (EIA) and 1.4 mb/d (IEA). We expect growth of 1.3 mb/d, with the key difference being OECD forecasts. We expect demand for the bloc to drop by 0.2 mb/d, while the IEA has it flat, and the EIA and OPEC predict growth.

Non-OPEC supply growth estimates for 2017 were revised slightly lower by the Secretariat to 0.8 mb/d, while the EIA hiked this to 0.9 mb/d and the IEA’s call remained unchanged at 0.7 mb/d. These remain higher than our non-OPEC supply estimate of 0.5 mb/d for the year, given we expect sharper falls in non-OPEC ex-North America. For 2018, our non-OPEC supply growth estimate of 1.6 mb/d is higher than those of the EIA (1.22 mb/d), OPEC (1.14 mb/d) and IEA (1.4 mb/d), with the major difference still coming from ex-North America growth estimates (Brazil).

OPEC compliance with the production deal fell in June (OPEC’s monthly report pegged it at 95%, EIA: 79% and IEA: 78%). On our estimates, compliance fell m/m to 95%, driven by an increase in Saudi and Iraqi production, while other members were largely flat. Libyan and Nigerian production continued to increase in June, boosting overall supplies from the group sharply.

The calls on OPEC crude in 2017 amongst the agencies (IEA: 32.9 mb/d, OPEC: 32.3 mb/d and EIA: 32.5 mb/d) are all within close range of our forecast of 32.5 mb/d. The agencies upward revisions were mostly to do with the re-classification of Equatorial Guinea under OPEC supplies. The 2018 call is mixed, with the EIA at 32.8 mb/d, higher y/y by 0.22 mb/d, while the Secretariat places it at 32.2 mb/d, lower y/y by 60 thousand b/d, and the IEA at 32.8 mb/d, lower y/y by 0.1 mb/d. The IEA and EIA’s calls are similar to our own estimate of 33 mb/d, which is higher y/y.

Preliminary data show OECD stocks drew by 6.8 mb in June to 3,040 mb, with the overhang to the five-year average falling by a further 7.5 mb to below 260 mb. Since January, the crude overhang has fallen by 97 mb through June, at a pace of 0.53 mb/d, with total inventories falling by a slightly lower 0.5 mb. In May, OECD inventories fell by 6 mb to 3,047 mb in May, reducing the overhang from 300 mb to 266 mb. Commercial crude stocks reached 1,203 mb, down by 20.1 mb m/m, with counter-seasonal draws seen in all three OECD regions.

Log in to download

Other Data review publications

Canada oil data – Jul 2017

Published 5 hours ago

2017-09 Oil - Data review - Canada oil data – Jul 2017 cover

Extract from production:We forecast that total Canadian liquids production grew by 0.18 mb/d m/m..

Read more

South Korea oil data – Aug 2017

Published 8 hours ago

2017-09 Oil - Data review - South Korea oil data – Aug 2017 cover

Korean oil demand contracted y/y for the first time in six months in August, by 92 thousand b/d t..

Read more

US Department of Energy

Published 2 days ago

2017-09 Oil - Data review - US Department of Energy cover

Extract from crude oil:Crude stocks rose by 4.6 mb w/w to 472.8 mb. The builds were driven by PAD..

Read more

India oil data – Aug 2017

Published 2 days ago

2017-09 Oil - Data review - India oil data – Aug 2017 cover

Indian oil demand fell y/y by 0.26 mb/d to 3.96 mb/d in August on both a high base (demand rose y..

Read more

Europe oil data – Jul 2017

Published 4 days ago

2017-09 Oil - Data review - Europe oil data – Jul 2017 cover

This month we release an enhanced Europe oil data review, containing additional analysis of trend..

Read more