Europe oil data – Mar 2017

Published at 13:35 18 May 2017 by

European March oil demand was flat y/y at 14.9 mb/d, the second consecutive month of weakness. Q1 17 demand was trimmed lower, due to sizeable downward revisions to data in Germany, Turkey and Norway. Turkey (-0.15 mb/d y/y), Belgium (-59 thousand b/d y/y) and Germany (-43 thousand b/d y/y) led the declines in March. Turkish demand was pulled down by weak economic data and the sluggish lira weighing on auto sales. Peripheral Europe, however, continued to grow strongly, by 0.23 mb/d, led by Norway, Czech Republic and Estonia. Euro-5 demand fell y/y for the second straight month, by 76 thousand b/d, with Italy the only source of growth at 43 thousand b/d, and French demand steady. But much like February, we expect UK demand to be revised higher, especially amidst strong economic data, and helped by frontloaded auto sales, before the new vehicle excise duty (VED) rates came into effect in April. The weakness in German demand has largely been led by heating oil due to destocking, rather than on-road diesel. Indeed, final data for February show a 0.13 mb/d y/y decline in heating oil demand vs a 4% y/y rise in on-road diesel to 0.76 mb/d. Anecdotal reports suggest strong German buying at present, and we expect European demand to be strong in the summer.

European refinery runs totalled 12.4 mb/d, lower m/m, but were higher y/y by 0.32 mb/d—despite 1.9 mb/d of turnarounds, which were higher y/y by 0.5 mb/d. Runs were supported by higher utilisation rates at refineries that were not down for works. Maintenance work remained heavy through mid-May. Still, with the exception of a small build in jet, product stocks drew. Gasoline inventories fell by 1.5 mb and diesel by 2.5 mb. Stocks continued to draw as of May.

Log in to download

Other Data review publications

US Department of Energy

Published 14 hours ago

2017-09 Oil - Data review - US Department of Energy cover

Extract from crude oil:Crude stocks rose by 4.6 mb w/w to 472.8 mb. The builds were driven by PAD..

Read more

India oil data – Aug 2017

Published 1 day ago

2017-09 Oil - Data review - India oil data – Aug 2017 cover

Indian oil demand fell y/y by 0.26 mb/d to 3.96 mb/d in August on both a high base (demand rose y..

Read more

Europe oil data – Jul 2017

Published 2 days ago

2017-09 Oil - Data review - Europe oil data – Jul 2017 cover

This month we release an enhanced Europe oil data review, containing additional analysis of trend..

Read more

Middle East oil demand – Jul 2017

Published 2 days ago

2017-09 Oil - Data review - Middle East oil demand – Jul 2017 cover

Middle Eastern oil demand for the top 10 countries, ex-bunkering, grew y/y by 0.17 mb/d to a reco..

Read more

Norway oil data – Aug 2017

Published 5 days ago

2017-09 Oil - Data review - Norway oil data – Aug 2017 cover

Norwegian liquids production fell back m/m by 41 thousand b/d to 1.92 mb/d in August, lower y/y b..

Read more