Our recently enhanced Middle East & Africa Quarterly provides a comprehensive analysis of the region, examining key topics in depth and providing a detailed guide to regional supply, demand, trade flows and downstream capacity across the Middle East & Africa. Each quarter, focus pieces delve into key issues that will impact the market in the near and medium term.
In this edition:
- In Focus 1: Sub-Saharan Africa will see some large fields come online this year and next, but the project pipeline looks distinctly dry thereafter. Without higher prices and a more attractive investment climate, West Africa in particular is on a fast-track to terminal decline.
- In Focus 2: OPEC’s cuts continue to drive crude markets, but away from the headlines, NGLs and condensate production in the Middle East has also been affected. However, while production will slow this year, the long-term growth outlook is strong.
- Macroeconomic outlook: The arrival of the Trump administration in the White House has seen Iran thrust back into the spotlight. The country holds a great deal of promise, but risks to its upstream industry—and wider economy—are skewed to the downside.
- Outlook for oil products: The prevailing low oil price environment has had an oversized impact on Saudi Arabia, where oil product demand fell last year for the first time since 1995. We expect another—albeit lesser—demand decline in 2017.
- Outlook for crude: Cautious optimism surrounding Libya’s production outlook had raised doubts about the likely effectiveness of OPEC’s cuts, but here we argue that the country’s fortunes have worsened once again, leading us to forecast a 0.55-0.80 mb/d output range this year, with downside to that number given the fraught political landscape.
The Middle East & Africa Quarterly also provides a unique and comprehensive overview of key regional data, focusing on: demand, refining, supply, trade flows and prices, including domestic consumption by country and by oil product for key Middle Eastern and African countries; refining capacity and upcoming projects by country, and refined products output; and crude output by country, with a detailed focus on the largest regional oil sector. We now also publish detailed analysis on Sub-Saharan African markets, given their growing importance in determining global product flows.