Trevor Sikorski
Trevor Sikorski is the Head of Natural Gas and Carbon Research at Energy Aspects. Trevor has been analysing European energy and environmental markets for more than 15 years, having held senior analytical research roles with Barclays Capital, Point Carbon, Global Insight and PwC. He has an in-depth understanding of the global markets for generation fuels and carbon, including their fundamentals, trading behaviours, and complex interactions. In 2010, he was named the top carbon market analyst by Environmental Finance magazine and was in Commodity Magazine’s commodities research team of the year in 2011. Trevor is frequently featured in leading media outlets, including the Financial Times, BBC News, Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, Wall Street Journal, and Sky News.
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North America
Published 7 Oct 2019
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Forecast ample inventories in the US should keep a cap on Henry Hub prices, particularly in injection season 2020, while winter 2019-20 prices will likely only jump up if there is colder-than-normal weather. Our base-case forecast is for an end-October storage carryout near 108 bcm (3.81 tcf) and.. -
European carbon
Published 7 Oct 2019
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While no single event trigger was apparent last week, the growing tide of bearish news finally pushed the market out of its latest range with EUA prices dropping some 9.3% w/w. A range of factors bubbling in the background have provided a bearish narrative for a while, including weakness in Europ.. -
EU imports
Published 3 Oct 2019
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Low prompt prices at European hubs and scant storage capacity suggest pipe supply to Europe from all the major import sources should continue to slow. However, big drops in pipe supply are not expected as we are now in the gas winter. Gazprom has been working around capacity restrictions on OPAL.. -
PVB netbacks hinge on Algeria supply
Published 1 Oct 2019
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Please note that users licensed for the data service can access LNG freight rates by clicking here.The Spanish PVB hub will provide a better netback for Atlantic basin producers than most other markets in Europe next year, with the hub supported by aggregate demand increases y/y and with Algerian.. -
Trolling the TTF
Published 30 Sep 2019
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Scant injection demand and high LNG supply will weigh on prices in October, pushing TTF D+1 prices to the point where coal-to-gas fuel switching is maximised. But how loose the October supply-demand balance will be will depend heavily on how much gas is produced by Norway’s flexible Troll f.. -
European carbon
Published 30 Sep 2019
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Most of the market focus last week shifted to European Commission President-elect Ursula von der Leyen’s emphasis on the ‘European Green Deal’, which is to be the hallmark policy of the coming five years. Embedded in the deal is a commitment to becoming the world’s first c.. -
Middle East & North Africa
Published 30 Sep 2019
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LNG imports by countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) remained weak in August, declining y/y by 0.26 Mt, but the pace of declines will ease from September onwards. Overall exports from the region rose only marginally y/y in August, as Egyptian exports were flat due to a combination.. -
Grin and bear it
Published 30 Sep 2019
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The start of winter features some very low prevailing prices in the global gas markets, with JKM contracts for delivery in winter 2019-20 now all below 7 $/mmbtu. While there is always winter weather risk that can provide some support, the downside continues to dominate as Asian demand growth con.. -
Mex it up
Published 26 Sep 2019
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SupplySeptember production readings indicate output is at a near stand-still m/m. Ongoing issues relating to corrosion and remediation works on the TETCO system as well as outages at the Nautilus pipeline have dampened Lower 48 flows. Some output in Q4 19 will be locked in at higher prices becaus.. -
China
Published 26 Sep 2019
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Users licensed for the data service can access our China gas balances and gas imports data.We see Chinese LNG imports rising to 22.1 bcm in Q1 20, from 20.3 bcm a year earlier, with imports testing maximum regasification capacity. Debottlenecking inland pipeline capacity last year enabled greater.. -
Global supply trends
Published 26 Sep 2019
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Users licensed for the data service can access our liquefaction database and global balances data.The story of global LNG supply continued to be one of sustained y/y growth in August and September. The trend of growth is going to continue with the ramping up of the last of the trains expected to.. -
South Asia
Published 25 Sep 2019
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Users licensed for the data service can access our India gas supply and power generation data.We see y/y growth in South Asia’s imports over the coming months being encouraged by lower regional LNG spot prices y/y and new marketing deals. This implies substantially greater use of Pakistan's secon.. -
Inter-basin arbitrage opens
Published 24 Sep 2019
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Please note that users licensed for the data service can access LNG freight rates by clicking here.The arbitrage between northeast Asian and European near-curve prices widened w/w on 23 September as risks tightening the Northeast Asia winter balance prevented the JKM M+1 from fully tracking falls.. -
False French alarm
Published 23 Sep 2019
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European gas prices slumped this morning (23 September) as it has become increasingly clear that the abnormalities affecting six French nuclear units will provide only a small boost to gas demand this winter. We expect the TTF Win-19 contract to remain soft, with potential for the TTF Q4-19-Q1-20.. -
European carbon
Published 23 Sep 2019
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The carbon market stayed rangebound last week despite some more clarity on the safety anomalies involving EDF’s French nuclear plants. We estimated last week that 14.4 GW of capacity could be at risk of a potential shutdown. However, EDF announced later in the week that the plants that are affect..
Recent alerts
- Prolonged cold spell shocking EU gas markets and setting up end-March y/y storage deficit 1 year ago
- Contract arbitration talk dominates as NE Asian LNG prices stagnate 1 year ago
- EU renewable capacity growth in 2017 including record wind capacity additions is making gas work harder for market share 1 year ago
- Latest NE Asian cold spells halts LNG price declines but limited upside left before seasonal declines kick in 1 year ago
- Dutch regulator calls for deep Groningen cut, which would tighten Dutch market and raise import demand 1 year ago
- 2017 ends with a disappointing 'launch' of a scaled-back Chinese ETS 1 year ago
- Natural gas prices in China surge on winter demand, but only limited upside to our LNG forecast 1 year ago
- Volatility returns as storm of outages puts European gas markets into a spin 1 year ago
- NBP spot prices jump as cracked Forties pipeline shuts down, tightening supply-demand balance 1 year ago
- BBL becomes part of the TTF, lowering the cost of arbitrage for the NBP–TTF spread 2 years ago
- Dutch court rejects Groningen cap, paving way for deeper production cuts for gas year starting October 2018 2 years ago
- Bullish EU ETS Phase 4 reform bill finally agreed at trilogue 2 years ago
- Brexit clause agreed at EU trilogue meeting pushes value of existing EUAs upwards 2 years ago
- Despite ASN announcements, scheduled outages suggest y/y improvement in French nuclear availability in Q4 17 2 years ago
- MEPs vote to Brexit-proof EUAs at expense of market fragmentation and risk 2 years ago
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