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Trevor Sikorski

Trevor Sikorski is the Head of Natural Gas and Carbon Research at Energy Aspects. Trevor has been analysing European energy and environmental markets for more than 15 years, having held senior analytical research roles with Barclays Capital, Point Carbon, Global Insight and PwC. He has an in-depth understanding of the global markets for generation fuels and carbon, including their fundamentals, trading behaviours, and complex interactions. In 2010, he was named the top carbon market analyst by Environmental Finance magazine and was in Commodity Magazine’s commodities research team of the year in 2011. Trevor is frequently featured in leading media outlets, including the Financial Times, BBC News, Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, Wall Street Journal, and Sky News.

Monthly Long-term update: December 2019
- Long-term
- E-mail alerts
Published 16 Dec 2019 by
- Matthew Parry
- Virendra Chauhan
- Trevor Sikorski
- Ben Lee
European Carbon
- Emissions
- Carbon weekly
Published 16 Dec 2019 by
- Trevor Sikorski
This will be the last weekly carbon report for 2019. The next update will be published on Monday 6 January.With last week’s big events out of the way, the EU ETS market now enters the end-of-year period during which prices tend to drift up as EUA auctions are halted. Last week’s events were poten..
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UK election result leading to EUA relief rally, but could be short-lived
- Emissions
- E-mail alert
Published 13 Dec 2019 by
- Trevor Sikorski
Awaiting resolution
Published 12 Dec 2019 by
- Trevor Sikorski
The outlook is bearish for the rest of the winter, and even more so for the following summer. While this has been a key theme for some time, November saw an onslaught of LNG that left European storage levels high and meant a downward repricing of the TTF curve. That downward potential has not yet..
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EU Green Deal legislative timetable slower than expected
- Emissions
- E-mail alert
Published 11 Dec 2019 by
- Ben Lee
- Trevor Sikorski
US sanctions will potentially delay completion of Nord Stream 2
Published 10 Dec 2019 by
- Trevor Sikorski
NBP – Dec 2019
Published 10 Dec 2019 by
- Trevor Sikorski
- Jane Rangel
November’s restart of Rough cushion gas production promises to swell Q1 20 UKCS supply, adding another 0.5 bcm to an already well supplied UK market. Given that we expect robust inflows from Norway and via LNG, we see the UK importing even less gas from continental Europe this winter than last, n..
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December dump
Published 9 Dec 2019 by
- Trevor Sikorski
- Jane Rangel
All signs point to continued loose European supply and demand fundamentals through the next two weeks, which should weigh on European gas prices. Weather forecasts indicate European temperatures will be well above average from 14 December, slashing LDZ demand. LNG sendout will remain close to his..
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European Carbon
- Emissions
- Carbon weekly
Published 9 Dec 2019 by
- Trevor Sikorski
This week is shaping up to be a big one for events for the EU carbon market. First up is a scheduled statement from European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen on 11 December outlining more formally the contents of the European Green Deal. The headline components of the Green Deal have alr..
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EU imports: Rampant Russia
Published 6 Dec 2019 by
- Trevor Sikorski
The current winter season has started with a larger-than-expected jump in imports of Russian gas as Central European markets in particular are buying up gas to put in storage in case flows through Ukraine are cut off. The strong November takes have led us to revise our forecast of Q4 19 EU import..
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Shut-in risk exists for Q1 20
Published 4 Dec 2019 by
- Trevor Sikorski
- Nina Fahy
- Ben Lee
We expect global gas prices to marginally soften into year-end, but there is further downside risk for 2020-delivery contracts if Russia and Ukraine reach a deal to flow transit gas to Europe in Q1 20 (which we think is likely). Asian gas demand should pick up sequentially moving forward given th..
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North America – Dec 2019
Published 2 Dec 2019 by
- Trevor Sikorski
- Nina Fahy
- Ben Lee
The US gas market will primarily focus on keeping end-October 2020 stocks below 113 bcm (4.0 tcf) to avoid exacerbating an already bearish situation. We project stocks will end injection season 2020 no lower than 112 bcm (3.95 tcf). Prices will need to fall to stimulate more demand―particularly f..
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Ups and downs
Published 2 Dec 2019 by
- Trevor Sikorski
- Jane Rangel
European weather forecasts’ recent tendency to oscillate around normal has helped keep the TTF trading flat over the last few weeks. However, robust gas supply from all sources continues to keep storage withdrawals slow. As we expected, the y/y storage surplus did widen over last week and we stil..
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European Carbon
- Emissions
- Carbon weekly
Published 2 Dec 2019 by
- Trevor Sikorski
The UNFCCC’s Conference of Parties (COP25) begins this week for all countries to discuss climate policy. There will be two main issues on the agenda. The first issue is to raise the overall ambition that is imbedded in the Paris Agreement (PA). Under the PA, nations submit national climate action..
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Low prices and FIDs
Published 29 Nov 2019 by
- Trevor Sikorski
While the global gas market looks set for a more sideways period in terms of trading until the end of the year, very thin JKM–TTF spreads across the curve could come under some pressure to widen over the coming months. Current spreads narrowed after a largely mild November in Northeast Asia and t..
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