Trevor Sikorski
Trevor Sikorski is the Head of Natural Gas and Carbon Research at Energy Aspects. Trevor has been analysing European energy and environmental markets for more than 15 years, having held senior analytical research roles with Barclays Capital, Point Carbon, Global Insight and PwC. He has an in-depth understanding of the global markets for generation fuels and carbon, including their fundamentals, trading behaviours, and complex interactions. In 2010, he was named the top carbon market analyst by Environmental Finance magazine and was in Commodity Magazine’s commodities research team of the year in 2011. Trevor is frequently featured in leading media outlets, including the Financial Times, BBC News, Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, Wall Street Journal, and Sky News.
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Shrug off the cold
Published 25 Nov 2019
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European weather forecasts point to an early-December cold snap, but robust gas supply will keep storage withdrawals slow, widening the y/y storage surplus over the next two weeks. European 2020 gas contracts will retain most of their premium unless progress is made in Russia-Ukraine transit talk.. -
European Carbon
Published 25 Nov 2019
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Positioning around the expiry of the key Dec-19 futures and options contracts next month will continue to influence trade on the carbon market in the coming weeks. Open interest (OI) in futures remains significantly down y/y across ICE and EEX, as does OI in the volume of options that are in the.. -
Of Corsia
Published 22 Nov 2019
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With EUA prices stuck firmly in a 23–28 €/t range, December holds a number of events that could stimulate some direction in pricing. The UK general election on 12 December could result in a clear route through Brexit, or leave the situation largely unchanged. December will also see the expiry of.. -
Storage gluttony
Published 21 Nov 2019
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SupplyEven at our Cal-20 price forecast of $2.15/mmbtu, producers are likely to keep turning rigs to the right as long as they can cover variable costs. An Appalachian producer selling at a local hub would have no incentive to grow production considering current prices. However, shut-in economics.. -
Troll rears its head
Published 18 Nov 2019
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Last week saw a y/y uptick in Norwegian deliveries to Europe, and we expect that Norwegian flows will now remain at least flat y/y, even if the supply-demand balance loosens. We expect that the European stockdraw will total just 1.4 bcm in the next two weeks, compared with 5.8 bcm at the same tim.. -
European Carbon
Published 18 Nov 2019
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The EUA market is looking technically weak, though traders will continue to watch how the German coal commission’s recommendations are written into law. Draft laws were released last week showing that the German government plans to reach its 2022 coal closure targets largely through negotiated sh.. -
Lost in transit
Published 14 Nov 2019
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The outlook is bearish for the rest of the winter, and even more so for the following summer. Over the last six weeks as temperatures have dropped and demand and prompt prices have moved higher, risk premium has come out of the curve, leaving further downside to Q1-20 prices limited.The downward.. -
Northwest Europe – Nov 2019
Published 13 Nov 2019
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Strong sendout will continue to weigh on near curve contracts at European hubs that possess LNG import infrastructure. But we expect that TTF near curve prices will rise relative to surrounding hubs as falling domestic supply caused by the lower Groningen cap offsets some of the rise in Dutch LNG.. -
Sendout spectacular
Published 11 Nov 2019
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Strong LNG sendout will continue to curb underground storage withdrawals over the next two weeks, weighing on European near-curve contracts. High supply and a loose global supply-demand balance will help Europe’s y/y storage surplus expand to 13.2 bcm by 22 November. Some of the price downside wi.. -
European Carbon
Published 11 Nov 2019 byWith Brexit now into a hiatus as the UK enters a general election period, the EU carbon market’s focus is turning to, among other things, the expiry of Dec-19 options and forward contracts in mid-December. Net open interest (OI) in Dec-19 EUA forward contracts on ICE is down by some 69 Mt (-16%).. -
EU imports: Heavy send-out
Published 8 Nov 2019
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November has started with LNG terminals looking to make space for additional cargoes as LNG in floating storage prepares to start unloading. This unwinding of storage will likely keep LNG sendout in Europe at high levels for the coming weeks. Although LNG has remained strong, Russian pipeline flo.. -
Global LNG trends – Nov 2019
Published 8 Nov 2019
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Our base case forecasts out to end-2020 point to bearish global gas markets, and this is unlikely to change unless we see significant supply outages and a substantially colder-than-normal winter for the northern hemisphere. High LNG and gas stocks globally are weighing on gas prices and LNG sendo.. -
NBP – Nov 2019
Published 7 Nov 2019
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Please note that users licensed for the data service can access our UK gas balances by clicking here.Slower Norwegian gas supply y/y into the UK will partially offset stronger LNG sendout in Q4 19, helping to manage a loose supply-demand balance without the need for continental exports. We have a.. -
NS2 could be delayed beyond Q1 20, keeping risks high on Ukraine gas transit
Published 6 Nov 2019 by -
North America – Nov 2019
Published 5 Nov 2019
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We have revised down our price forecast for the Cal-20 strip by 9 cents to 2.23 $/mmbtu. A combination of factors in North America led to the downward revision: forecast high stocks, the need to drive coal-to-gas switching, and lacklustre demand in the industrial sector and for exports to Mexico...
Recent alerts
- Arb for US freedom gas to Europe for late summer delivery may close 6 months ago
- Brisk LNG arrivals and weak hydro to drive Italian fuel switching to gas this summer 7 months ago
- Strong LNG receipts and French imports to drive uptick in Spanish power gas burn this summer 8 months ago
- Brexit chaos still leaves no-deal risk on the table, which could increase again tonight 9 months ago
- Chinese gas imports hit record in January, suggesting stocks are comfortable and inflows will ease in February 10 months ago
- Surprise French position makes restrictions on Nord Stream 2 utilisation likely 10 months ago
- German coal commission conclusions curtail CO2 emissions, constructive for gas 10 months ago
- German coal commission conclusions curtail CO2 emissions, constructive for gas 10 months ago
- Italian gas demand to grow by 1.6 y/y in 2019 as LNG surge fuels coal-to-gas switch 10 months ago
- Heavy defeat of Brexit bill extends uncertainty for the EU ETS 10 months ago
- German EUA auctions set for February after EEX reconfirmed as auctioneer, denting bullish Q1 sentiment 11 months ago
- EC suspends Q1 activity of UK government making Q1 19 particularly supply constrained 11 months ago
- Poland’s decision to add an extra 55.8 Mt to 2019 EUA auctions will slightly dampen bullish impact of MSR 1 year ago
- Spain’s healthy hydro reservoirs and Algerian imports have eased call on LNG cargoes 1 year ago
- A limited US-China trade agreement likely at the G20; Chinese imports of US LNG likely to increase 1 year ago
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