Trevor Sikorski
Trevor Sikorski is the Head of Natural Gas and Carbon Research at Energy Aspects. Trevor has been analysing European energy and environmental markets for more than 15 years, having held senior analytical research roles with Barclays Capital, Point Carbon, Global Insight and PwC. He has an in-depth understanding of the global markets for generation fuels and carbon, including their fundamentals, trading behaviours, and complex interactions. In 2010, he was named the top carbon market analyst by Environmental Finance magazine and was in Commodity Magazine’s commodities research team of the year in 2011. Trevor is frequently featured in leading media outlets, including the Financial Times, BBC News, Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, Wall Street Journal, and Sky News.
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Published 25 Nov 2019
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European weather forecasts point to an early-December cold snap, but robust gas supply will keep storage withdrawals slow, widening the y/y storage surplus over the next two weeks. European 2020 gas contracts will retain most of their premium unless progress is made in Russia-Ukraine transit talk..
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Published 25 Nov 2019
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Positioning around the expiry of the key Dec-19 futures and options contracts next month will continue to influence trade on the carbon market in the coming weeks. Open interest (OI) in futures remains significantly down y/y across ICE and EEX, as does OI in the volume of options that are in the..
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Published 22 Nov 2019
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With EUA prices stuck firmly in a 23–28 €/t range, December holds a number of events that could stimulate some direction in pricing. The UK general election on 12 December could result in a clear route through Brexit, or leave the situation largely unchanged. December will also see the expiry of..
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Published 21 Nov 2019
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SupplyEven at our Cal-20 price forecast of $2.15/mmbtu, producers are likely to keep turning rigs to the right as long as they can cover variable costs. An Appalachian producer selling at a local hub would have no incentive to grow production considering current prices. However, shut-in economics..
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Published 18 Nov 2019
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Last week saw a y/y uptick in Norwegian deliveries to Europe, and we expect that Norwegian flows will now remain at least flat y/y, even if the supply-demand balance loosens. We expect that the European stockdraw will total just 1.4 bcm in the next two weeks, compared with 5.8 bcm at the same tim..
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Published 18 Nov 2019
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The EUA market is looking technically weak, though traders will continue to watch how the German coal commission’s recommendations are written into law. Draft laws were released last week showing that the German government plans to reach its 2022 coal closure targets largely through negotiated sh..
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Published 14 Nov 2019
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The outlook is bearish for the rest of the winter, and even more so for the following summer. Over the last six weeks as temperatures have dropped and demand and prompt prices have moved higher, risk premium has come out of the curve, leaving further downside to Q1-20 prices limited.The downward..
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Published 13 Nov 2019
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Strong sendout will continue to weigh on near curve contracts at European hubs that possess LNG import infrastructure. But we expect that TTF near curve prices will rise relative to surrounding hubs as falling domestic supply caused by the lower Groningen cap offsets some of the rise in Dutch LNG..
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Published 11 Nov 2019
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Strong LNG sendout will continue to curb underground storage withdrawals over the next two weeks, weighing on European near-curve contracts. High supply and a loose global supply-demand balance will help Europe’s y/y storage surplus expand to 13.2 bcm by 22 November. Some of the price downside wi..
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Published 11 Nov 2019
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With Brexit now into a hiatus as the UK enters a general election period, the EU carbon market’s focus is turning to, among other things, the expiry of Dec-19 options and forward contracts in mid-December. Net open interest (OI) in Dec-19 EUA forward contracts on ICE is down by some 69 Mt (-16%)..
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Published 8 Nov 2019
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November has started with LNG terminals looking to make space for additional cargoes as LNG in floating storage prepares to start unloading. This unwinding of storage will likely keep LNG sendout in Europe at high levels for the coming weeks. Although LNG has remained strong, Russian pipeline flo..
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Published 8 Nov 2019
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Our base case forecasts out to end-2020 point to bearish global gas markets, and this is unlikely to change unless we see significant supply outages and a substantially colder-than-normal winter for the northern hemisphere. High LNG and gas stocks globally are weighing on gas prices and LNG sendo..
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Published 7 Nov 2019
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Please note that users licensed for the data service can access our UK gas balances by clicking here.Slower Norwegian gas supply y/y into the UK will partially offset stronger LNG sendout in Q4 19, helping to manage a loose supply-demand balance without the need for continental exports. We have a..
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Published 6 Nov 2019
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Published 5 Nov 2019
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We have revised down our price forecast for the Cal-20 strip by 9 cents to 2.23 $/mmbtu. A combination of factors in North America led to the downward revision: forecast high stocks, the need to drive coal-to-gas switching, and lacklustre demand in the industrial sector and for exports to Mexico...
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