Saudi Arabia
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Fundamentals January 2013
Published 25 Jan 2013
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Fundamentals is our monthly review of global oil data, this is the January edition The first macroeconomic numbers from 2013 suggest a generally positive environment, with rebounding data points from China and signs that Europe is turning a corner. Consequently, oil demand growth has picked up in.. -
Jet fuel outlook 2013
Published 25 Jan 2013
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In 2012-to-November, total airline passenger traffic was higher y/y by 5.3% and freight was lower by 1.6%, highlighting the weakness in global economic activity. Stronger economic growth forecast for 2013 and tight capacity management by carriers create the potential for improvement airline profi.. -
Refined challenges
Published 21 Jan 2013
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Last week saw the resurgence of geopolitics in the oil market, with Algeria in the limelight. While we do not believe Algeria's oil and gas production is necessarily at risk of a shutdown, an important fallout from the Algerian event could be its impact on Libya, given the increasingly fragile po.. -
Middle East oil demand – Nov 2012
Published 20 Jan 2013
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Oil demand in the Middle East eased in line with seasonal temperatures, totaling 4.74 mb/d, lower m/m by 0.3 mb/d and more importantly, lower y/y by 0.35 mb/d, although it should be noted that Kuwaiti and Iranian demand figures were unreported and hence Energy Aspects estimates are subject to rev.. -
Key agency forecasts
Published 18 Jan 2013
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The past ten days has seen the release of several key agency forecasts, with OPEC's monthly report released on Wednesday and the IEA releasing its OMR this morning. Meanwhile the EIA's short-term energy outlook was released on the 8 Jan. We summarise the key takeaways in this brief review. Althou.. -
The oil world in 2013
Published 15 Jan 2013
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Our first In Focus of the year analyses 13 themes that we believe will shape the oil world in 2013. These range from the prospects for China's economy to the implications of global refinery capacity additions over the year ahead. We set out to answer key questions that will occupy the oil markets.. -
Spreading your bets
Published 14 Jan 2013
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Last week was dominated by reports of Saudi Arabia reducing their output in December to 9 mb/d and by the further narrowing in WTI-Brent differentials. On the former, our view is that the Kingdom's output policy of continuing to adjust its supply to satisfy demand remains intact and the recent re.. -
Fundamentals December 2012
Published 20 Dec 2012
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Fundamentals is our monthly review of global oil data, this is the December edition. The stand out feature of this month's data review is the recovery in demand across the board, including in Europe (albeit y/y growth remained in negative territory). Indeed, the latest data for OECD oil demand in.. -
Middle East oil demand – Oct 2012
Published 19 Dec 2012
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Oil demand in the Middle East stayed above 5 mb/d for the sixth straight month, with demand in October higher y/y by a strong 0.395 mb/d (8.5%), at 5.058 mb/d, despite easing m/m in line with seasonal averages. We expect the region's oil demand to continue growing, boosted by demographic expansio.. -
Outlook for 2013: turning tides?
Published 17 Dec 2012
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We present our views for 2013 in the last Perspectives of this year. We suspect that the market may be underestimating the potential strength in Chinese oil demand vis-à-vis Saudi Arabia's willingness to balance the market by adjusting output anywhere between 8.8-10.3 mb/d. The global economy has.. -
Middle East Quarterly
Published 11 Dec 2012
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The tectonic plates that bound the Middle East together have started to shift materially. These changes make for volatile times and markets are likely to place much focus in 2013 on regional flashpoints, from tensions between Iran and Israel to domestic upheavals in Syria and instability in the Y.. -
Call(ing) on OPEC
Published 3 Dec 2012
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OPEC meets on the 12th. We believe the status quo is likely to persist, as OPEC looks back upon 2012 with a sense of achievement and satisfaction with the oil price. Despite a weak demand backdrop and rising US supplies, the OPEC basket price is on track to average above $100 per barrel for the e.. -
Fundamentals November 2012
Published 26 Nov 2012
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Fundamentals is our monthly review of global oil data, this is the November edition. The tone of macroeconomic data over the past month has brightened further, with data points from China in particular showing signs of improvement. Chinese PMI went above 50 for the first time in 13 months in Nove.. -
Middle East oil demand – September 2012
Published 19 Nov 2012
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Oil demand in the Middle East continued to grow strongly in September, with total demand in the five main countries in the region higher y/y by 0.215 mb/d, at 5.336 mb/d, and down slightly from the record highs in August. The region's demand remained robust over the summer months, averaging 5.369.. -
OPEC oil data – October 2012
Published 14 Nov 2012
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The average of third party estimates that Energy Aspects collects pegs October OPEC-12 output at 31.17 mb/d, higher y/y by 1.36 mb/d and largely unchanged from September output. The largest m/m increases were Angola (0.06 mb/d) and Iraq (0.04 mb/d), while the largest declines came from Nigeria (0..
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