Russia

European gas
Published 19 Mar 2019 by
- Trevor Sikorski
- Leyra Fernández Díaz
- Stefan Ulrich
Please find attached a revised version of EU Panorama. We had erroneously calculated fuel switch triggers and have now corrected those and the implications for prices (on page 1, 2 and Figure 8). We apologies for any inconvenience caused by the error.The question on many lips right now is: how lo..
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OPEC cancels April extraordinary meeting but still set to extend deal to year-end in June
Published 18 Mar 2019 by
- Amrita Sen
- Yasser Elguindi
European gas
Published 18 Mar 2019 by
- Trevor Sikorski
- Leyra Fernández Díaz
- Stefan Ulrich
The question on many lips right now is: how low can the European hubs go this summer? EU hub prices have opened the week soft on a microcosm of the key factors that have been colouring the European gas markets over the last six weeks. The 14-day weather forecasts, from both EC and GFS, now call f..
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Scylla and Charybdis
- Oil
- Perspectives
Published 18 Mar 2019 by
- Amrita Sen
- Riccardo Fabiani
The situation in Venezuela has progressively evolved into a stalemate, with no quick resolution in sight. As a result, we have reduced our H2 19 Venezuelan output projections by around 0.30 mb/d. But this also implies the Trump administration is likely to go soft on Iran, and our soundings indica..
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Key agency forecasts
Published 15 Mar 2019 by
- Amrita Sen
- Rhidoy Rashid
- Riccardo Fabiani
- William Claeyssens
This week has seen all three of the key agency forecasts published. On Tuesday, the EIA published STEO, OPEC released its MOMR yesterday, while the IEA published its OMR this morning.Each of the key agencies show an outright fall in call-on-OPEC crude in 2019—justifying OPEC’s prudence— with the..
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Gulf source
- Oil products
- Middle distillates Outlook
Published 15 Mar 2019 by
- Robert Campbell
- Nevyn Nah
- Koen Wessels
- Rhidoy Rashid
- Matthew Holland
- Raul Rivera
After a long wait, refiners appear to have finally boosted diesel output at the expense of gasoline, causing a collapse in Atlantic basin diesel ahead of the March ICE gasoil expiry. Just as the market sought to test how low it could push gasoline down in Q4 18, it looks set to probe how much of..
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Tank tops
Published 14 Mar 2019 by
- Trevor Sikorski
The narrative around European gas markets has continued to feed the bearish summer story with a far milder-than-normal February leaving gas in storage up by 15 bcm y/y. By 9 March, mild weather had seen that y/y overhang grow to 19.4 bcm. While March weather is looking unsettled, the bias to abov..
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OPEC March Oil Market Report Summary
- Oil
- E-mail alert
Published 14 Mar 2019 by
- Rhidoy Rashid
- Riccardo Fabiani
- William Claeyssens
EU imports
Published 12 Mar 2019 by
- Trevor Sikorski
Much warmer-than-normal weather in February softened total European gas consumption, and high LNG imports and sendout remained a feature of the market. Pipeline imports only fell moderately, as a reduction in nominations of Russian gas was offset by a ramp-up in Gazprom selling on its Elect..
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Northwest Europe
Published 12 Mar 2019 by
- Trevor Sikorski
- Jane Rangel
- Stefan Ulrich
Weak demand and ample LNG supply led NW Europe to draw a paltry 5 bcm from storage in February, leading Europe to end February with a 15 bcm y/y storage surplus. An expected loose supply-demand balance in March would put the end-of-winter storage overhang at about 23 bcm, cutting summer injection..
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European gas
Published 11 Mar 2019 by
- Trevor Sikorski
- Jane Rangel
- Stefan Ulrich
There has been no respite for the bearish sentiment in European gas markets. An outright, if small, storage build in early March in NW Europe took the y/y inventory surplus to 19 Mt, leaving the market on track for an end-March carryout of 41 bcm (24 bcm higher y/y). Such a high carryout spooked..
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Cut up
- Oil
- Perspectives
Published 11 Mar 2019 by
- Amrita Sen
- Michal Meidan
- Riccardo Fabiani
Users licensed for the data service can access our global balances.The pullback in Chinese buying will continue to keep the physical market soft in the near term. However, Brent spreads have caught a bit of a bid, so positioning could overpower fundamentals for a short time. Our co..
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Weekly oil products update: Where are the VLCCs?
Published 8 Mar 2019 by
- Robert Campbell
- Nevyn Nah
- Koen Wessels
Global arbs and trade flows
- Global arbs and trade flows
- Outlook
Published 8 Mar 2019 by
- Amrita Sen
- Virginie Bahnik
- Stephen Wolfe
- William Claeyssens
- Riccardo Fabiani
- Christopher Haines
Users can access global trade flows data through our data service.February total seaborne loadings were down by 1.45 mb/d m/m to 44.97 mb/d as OPEC Middle Eastern producers continued to curtail exports, led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, whose export volumes dropped by a combined 0.62 mb/d m/m..
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China's February crude imports above 10 mb/d again; product exports fell ahead of peak maintenance
Published 8 Mar 2019 by
- Michal Meidan
- Yuntao Liu