Russia
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No surrender
Published 22 Jul 2019
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We forecast fundamentals over the next two weeks will tighten the European gas market balance and curb injection rates. Unusually hot weather will boost power sector gas demand and heavier Norwegian supply cuts y/y should continue for the rest of the quarter. This will help reduce the European y/.. -
Siren song
Published 22 Jul 2019
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Despite rising geopolitical tensions, demand concerns continue to dominate proceedings. Rumours of demand weakness a few months ago have become market gospel today and so the sustainability of the recovery in refining margins is being questioned. The prompt crude overhang is compounding the doubt.. -
Weekly oil products update - Nuance is dead
Published 19 Jul 2019 by -
Bulls of summer
Published 19 Jul 2019
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Having tested but failed to break downside resistance at the start of June, the EUA market looked to test the upside, and a heavy early July news flow provided enough momentum to break out of its range to the upside. While prices have eased after hitting a within-day high of 29.5 €/t, that p.. -
How soon is now?
Published 19 Jul 2019
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Weakness in diesel demand is no longer speculation. Incoming data show softness in demand and while the latest figures are lagged, there is little in the preliminary figures coming through that suggests a major change in the trend since May. Diesel yields are also on the rise ahead of IMO 2020. E.. -
Europe oil data – May 2019
Published 18 Jul 2019
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Extract from demand: European oil demand continued to decline in May, falling y/y by 0.67 mb/d to 14.57 mb/d amid a weak economic backdrop. Demand fell y/y across all EU-5 countries except for Spain (+29 thousand b/d), with Germany (-0.21 mb/d), Italy (-0.16 mb/d) and the UK (-0.14 mb/d) particul.. -
Russian July production falls sharply; organic chloride risk moves to seaborne markets
Published 18 Jul 2019 by -
Fear of imminent return of supplies from Iran or Venezuela is overblown
Published 17 Jul 2019 by -
Floating storage returns
Published 16 Jul 2019
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Summer global balances are now all about sniffing out available gas storage capacity. With European storage filling rapidly, floating cargoes as storage could become more of a focus. The Henry Hub-TTF arb for Sep-19 and Oct-19 contracts are open on paper once more, and our reference case assumes.. -
Global arbs and trade flows
Published 15 Jul 2019
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Users can access global trade flows data through our data service. Waterborne exports are unlikely to rise substantially from current levels after OPEC ministers agreed to roll over their share (0.8 mb/d) of the existing 1.2 mb/d OPEC+ cut for nine months, while Russian production will remai.. -
Unbalanced bull
Published 15 Jul 2019
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Some supportive short-term supply fundamentals coalesced on Monday morning to help last week’s bull run in the European gas markets maintain momentum, but Europe’s 23.4 bcm y/y storage surplus is the elephant in the room. Our forecast indicates that Europe will head into the last week.. -
Fragile market: handle with care
Published 15 Jul 2019
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Brent prices are stuck around $65—the supply issues make it risky to short crude at current prices, but demand concerns are a barrier to the market going long. For us, an improvement in the macroeconomic picture is a precondition to restoring confidence in the oil market. Supply has done as.. -
Key agency forecasts
Published 12 Jul 2019
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This week the key agency forecasts have been published. EIA published STEO on Tuesday, OPEC it’s MOMR yesterday and the IEA published OMR this morning. Even after a period of significant demand weakness, only one of the three key agencies has trimmed its forecasts. The EIA slashed its overl.. -
IEA July Oil Market Report Summary
Published 12 Jul 2019 by -
Chinese growth in gas imports light in June as economic slowdown and renewables growth trims demand
Published 12 Jul 2019 by
Recent alerts
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- IEA July Oil Market Report Summary 1 year ago
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