Raul Rivera
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Accident prone
Published 5 Apr 2019
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Refinery problems continue to bolster gasoline. Just as US East Coast refineries are set to return to normal, Californian gasoline prices lurched higher after Valero’s Benicia refinery was forced to shut down due to problems with its pollution control equipment. The idling of the refinery a.. -
US Department of Energy
Published 3 Apr 2019
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Extract from crude oil: Notwithstanding the higher-than-seasonal weekly crude stockbuild of 7.2 mb, the North American crude outlook is looking increasingly supportive, particularly as refineries exit maintenance. As we’ve said repeatedly in the last month, Permian output may not be as.. -
Brazil oil data – Feb 2019
Published 3 Apr 2019
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Brazilian February liquids output fell by 0.15 mb/d y/y to 2.58 mb/d, the largest yearly drop since September 2018, led by a 17% y/y drop in the Campos. Output also fell m/m, with the closure of unit P-43 in the Barracuda field reducing output by 33 thousand b/d m/m and maintenance in the Jubarte.. -
US demand and trade – Jan 2019
Published 29 Mar 2019
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US oil demand fell y/y by 9 thousand b/d to 20.45 mb/d in January, a 0.6 mb/d downward revision from the weekly EIA estimates—we expected a 0.7 mb/d downward revision, due to the government shutdown. Demand for the four main products dropped by 31 thousand b/d y/y, led by 39 thousand b/d an.. -
North America Quarterly
Published 28 Mar 2019
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This is the March 2019 edition of our North America Quarterly (NAQ), previously released in February in prior years. We have adjusted our release schedule to coincide better with earnings seasons effective in 2019. As usual, it covers all important aspects of the region, with a particular focus o.. -
US Department of Energy
Published 27 Mar 2019
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Extract from crude oil: Cash WTI roared into backwardation this week as Cushing builds disappointed amid quality issues and with pump-over congestion impacting individual tank farms at delivery. Tighter specifications at Cushing and midstream enforcement of quality segregation appear to have.. -
US Department of Energy
Published 20 Mar 2019
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Extract from crude oil: Cushing stocks have risen by less than consensus estimates in Q1 19 (quarter-to-date builds of around 4 mb, with the latest weekly data actually showing a 0.5 mb draw), allowing fears of tank tops to abate. This is mainly due to Permian and Bakken production growth coming.. -
Canada oil data – Jan 2019
Published 18 Mar 2019
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Extract from production: We forecast that Canadian liquids production in January fell by 0.44 mb/d m/m to 5.05 mb/d (-16 thousand b/d y/y), led by a 0.31 mb/d m/m fall in bitumen production due to the Albertan government’s mandated production cuts. In-situ production was lower by 69 thousan.. -
Gulf source
Published 15 Mar 2019
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After a long wait, refiners appear to have finally boosted diesel output at the expense of gasoline, causing a collapse in Atlantic basin diesel ahead of the March ICE gasoil expiry. Just as the market sought to test how low it could push gasoline down in Q4 18, it looks set to probe how much of.. -
US Department of Energy
Published 13 Mar 2019
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Extract from crude oil: As the oil industry gathered for CERAWeek in Houston, Venezuela and US shale production dominated conversations. Surprisingly, tight oil independents were far less upbeat on production prospects, as returning wealth to shareholders seems to be the key focus at a time&mdash.. -
US demand and trade – Dec 2018
Published 8 Mar 2019
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US oil demand rose y/y by 0.16 mb/d to 20.48 mb/d in December, a 0.26 mb/d downward revision from the weekly EIA estimates—we expected a 0.5 mb/d downward revision. Combined demand for the four main products increased by 0.12 b/d y/y. Final November data show a y/y increase of 0.24 mb/d, wi.. -
Brazil oil data – Jan 2019
Published 8 Mar 2019
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Brazilian January liquids output rose by just 7 thousand b/d y/y to 2.73 mb/d, with maintenance again eroding growth from new project ramps-up. In January, three pre-salt and two post-salt units were offline for maintenance, offsetting ramp-ups at P-69 and P-75, (first oil in Q4 18). We expect Fe.. -
All hat, no cattle
Published 8 Mar 2019
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Gasoline bulls have seized on turnarounds and traditional seasonal signals to bid up the market over the last few weeks, but the rally is flying in the face of serious structural problems in global light ends markets. Gasoline demand growth is sluggish in major markets and supply growth is largel.. -
US Department of Energy
Published 6 Mar 2019
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Extract from crude oil: Users licensed for the data service can access our US crude balances. Fog-related delays continue to influence the US weekly data, and while last week saw a large counter-seasonal draw as exports were prioritised over imports, this week’s data reversed.. -
US Department of Energy
Published 27 Feb 2019
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Extract from crude oil: Market participants will return from IP Week in London to find a USGC price deck significantly more expensive than when they left, and yet the overarching theme concerning US markets at IP week was bearish WTI. While sour crude prices were already strong in the shadow..
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