Perspectives

Our flagship weekly publication on the oil market, Perspectives, combines commentary on the key market themes and the latest data releases. Produced every Monday, Perspectives provides unparalleled information, analysis and views on the on-going debates that are influencing prices and explores the key developments that will help to shape the future of the market. Perspectives also offers detailed quarterly supply-demand balances by key regions and countries, comparing them to benchmarks like the IEA, EIA and OPEC Secretariat. The report also includes an updated database of large upcoming upstream projects

  • Scylla and Charybdis

    Scylla and Charybdis cover image Published 18 Mar 2019 by
    The situation in Venezuela has progressively evolved into a stalemate, with no quick resolution in sight. As a result, we have reduced our H2 19 Venezuelan output projections by around 0.30 mb/d. But this also implies the Trump administration is likely to go soft on Iran, and our soundings indica..

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  • Cut up

    Cut up cover image Published 11 Mar 2019 by
    Users licensed for the data service can access our global balances.The pullback in Chinese buying will continue to keep the physical market soft in the near term. However, Brent spreads have caught a bit of a bid, so positioning could overpower fundamentals for a short time. Our co..

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  • IP week(ly): Paradoxical inversion

    IP week(ly): Paradoxical inversion cover image Published 4 Mar 2019 by
    Users licensed for the data service can access our global balances.IP week was dominated by talk about crude quality, specifically the dearth of heavy, medium sour crudes and the deluge of naphtha-rich light crudes. The tightness has been exacerbated by Venezuelan output declines,..

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  • Not the end of the world

    Not the end of the world cover image Published 25 Feb 2019 by
    Worries about the global economy continue to cap crude prices even as the physical market is roaring ahead at a time when it should be extremely subdued given refinery works. These worries have merit—after all, near-final data for December show global oil demand fell y/y by the most since 2009, d..

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  • Spread and regret

    Spread and regret cover image Published 18 Feb 2019 by
    Users licensed for the data service can access our global balances.Even though we are trading peak turnaround barrels and there’s plenty of chatter about run cuts, voluntary and involuntary OPEC production cuts have tightened the physical crude market. If the market holds around th..

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  • Lipstick on a pig

    Lipstick on a pig cover image Published 11 Feb 2019 by
    Users licensed for the data service can access our global balances.Despite renewed worries about Chinese demand and the fate of the OPEC+ deal, physical crudes are holding up well, with West African differentials and global heavy and medium crudes strong. It would be hard to argue..

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  • Air and mixtures

    Air and mixtures cover image Published 4 Feb 2019 by
    Crude markets look remarkably strong for a time when refinery works and poor margins should sap demand. Some of the strength is due to temporary factors such as weather, Turkish straits delays and Chinese teapots deciding to maximise import quotas early. But supplies are coming in lower than expe..

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  • Misfit molecules

    Misfit molecules cover image Published 28 Jan 2019 by
    The strength in the physical crude market continues, led by sour crude shortages and crushing refinery margins (simple and complex). But as we inch closer towards IMO 2020, how will the diesel gap be filled if run cuts ensue? Diesel stocks are low while gasoline tanks are brimming, and refineries..

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  • Heavy heart

    Heavy heart cover image Published 21 Jan 2019 by
    The turnabout in the physical crude market has been impressive, although price rises are being aided by tightness caused by temporary factors such as weather disruptions and production outages. But even before these disruptions, the crude market had not been trading as if peak refinery turnaround..

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  • It's not all lost yet

    It's not all lost yet cover image Published 14 Jan 2019 by
    Oil prices have shot higher largely due to the reversal (positive gamma and short-covering) of the very factors that caused the plunge in December. The perceived health of the global economy has also improved from just a week ago, with the Fed stating that it will be sensitive to growth warnings..

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  • Not for the fainthearted

    Not for the fainthearted cover image Published 7 Jan 2019 by
    We are pleased to launch our new Global crude oil balances in addition to the existing Global liquids balances.This publication provides Energy Aspects’ monthly and quarterly crude oil and global liquids balances (Figures 3-5) with country-level breakdowns for OPEC and non-OPEC countries (Figures..

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  • Lack of conviction

    Lack of conviction cover image Published 17 Dec 2018 by
    Please note that this is the last Perspectives of 2018. Normal service will resume on 14 January 2019. We wish our readers a prosperous 2019!Users licensed for the data service can access our global balances.The gamut of geopolitical events and Trump’s propensity to interfere in almost every matt..

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  • United by demand

    United by demand cover image Published 10 Dec 2018 by
    Users licensed for the data service can access our global balances.OPEC+ delivered 1.2 mb/d cut from October 2018 baselines from 1 January, with Saudi Arabia set to lead from the front. Saudi exports will fall by over 1 mb/d from November’s levels we understand, to 7 mb/d in January. The cuts sho..

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  • Rock and a hard place

    Rock and a hard place cover image Published 3 Dec 2018 by
    On Friday we launched IMO: Vision 2020, a deep-dive report into the IMO 2020 transition that lays out the threats and opportunities for oil markets presented by this upheaval. Find out more.Users licensed for the data service can access our global balances.Yet another OPEC meeting is upon us. The..

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  • Dangerous liaisons

    Dangerous liaisons cover image Published 26 Nov 2018 by
    Users licensed for the data service can access our global balances.Given the rapidly evolving geopolitical relationship between the US and Saudi Arabia, the market now believes, rightly or wrongly, as evidenced by the continued capitulation in oil prices, that MbS is beholden to Trump, and thus w..

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