Perspectives

Our flagship weekly publication on the oil market, Perspectives, combines commentary on the key market themes and the latest data releases. Produced every Monday, Perspectives provides unparalleled information, analysis and views on the on-going debates that are influencing prices and explores the key developments that will help to shape the future of the market. Perspectives also offers detailed quarterly supply-demand balances by key regions and countries, comparing them to benchmarks like the IEA, EIA and OPEC Secretariat. The report also includes an updated database of large upcoming upstream projects

  • Preponderance of evidence

    Preponderance of evidence cover image Published 20 May 2019 by
    Please note that next week’s Perspectives will be published on Tuesday 28 May, owing to a bank holiday in the UK.Following draws in Q1 19, global stocks have risen by 50-60 mb from early April to mid-May (with OECD builds at 16-17 mb). But more than 80% of the April and May crude builds are..

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  • Exorcising the demons of 2018

    Exorcising the demons of 2018 cover image Published 13 May 2019 by
    Users licensed for the data service can access our global balances.Prompt Brent spreads have hit triple-digit backwardation, following Dubai spreads, on the back of growing needs for clean crudes to deal with the contaminated Russian oil. While operations on the Druzhba pipeline’s..

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  • The great oil divergence

    The great oil divergence cover image Published 7 May 2019 by
    The market is yet to fathom the full impact of the Russian crude contamination issue, which is now leading to outright production shut-ins, nor has it understood from the potential implications of the failed uprising in Venezuela for the country’s production profile. But most of all, the market i..

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  • Wake up

    Wake up cover image Published 29 Apr 2019 by
    Such is the level of disbelief in the market about the US decision to end all waivers to import Iranian oil, a baseless rumour (later quashed by the White House) that Trump was contemplating waivers for China was enough to crash the market on Friday, despite the likelihood that the Urals contamin..

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  • No, after you

    No, after you cover image Published 23 Apr 2019 by
    Users licensed for the data service can access our global balances.With the physical market on fire, flat price should have been markedly higher even prior to the US decision not to renew Iran sanctions waivers. Dubai spreads are on their way to three-digit backwardation, while Bre..

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  • Once bitten twice shy

    Once bitten twice shy cover image Published 15 Apr 2019 by
    Please note that next week's Perspectives will be published on Tuesday 23 April, owing to the Easter Monday holiday in the UKThe market is at a strange impasse. Contrary to last year, when the physical market did not send any signal to OPEC that a production increase was necessary, this year the..

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  • Mysterious apathy

    Mysterious apathy cover image Published 8 Apr 2019 by
    Users licensed for the data service can access our global balances.With June barrels starting to trade in some parts of the world, the market is about to get a glimpse of what global crude demand looks like in a non-turnaround month. This is particularly true for heavy grades and b..

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  • Explosive summer?

    Explosive summer? cover image Published 1 Apr 2019 by
    Users licensed for the data service can access our global balances.Crude stocks have failed to build materially during peak refinery maintenance season and this is reflected by both crude differentials and timespreads. Asian crude markets have started to edge higher as straggling A..

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  • The race begins

    The race begins cover image Published 25 Mar 2019 by
    Users licensed for the data service can access our global balances.Much of the strength in crude markets has shown up in West of Suez grades and differentials, while eastern sour crudes have mostly traded sideways and lights have weakened. The strength in Atlantic Basin mediums and..

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  • Scylla and Charybdis

    Scylla and Charybdis cover image Published 18 Mar 2019 by
    The situation in Venezuela has progressively evolved into a stalemate, with no quick resolution in sight. As a result, we have reduced our H2 19 Venezuelan output projections by around 0.30 mb/d. But this also implies the Trump administration is likely to go soft on Iran, and our soundings indica..

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  • Cut up

    Cut up cover image Published 11 Mar 2019 by
    Users licensed for the data service can access our global balances.The pullback in Chinese buying will continue to keep the physical market soft in the near term. However, Brent spreads have caught a bit of a bid, so positioning could overpower fundamentals for a short time. Our co..

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  • IP week(ly): Paradoxical inversion

    IP week(ly): Paradoxical inversion cover image Published 4 Mar 2019 by
    Users licensed for the data service can access our global balances.IP week was dominated by talk about crude quality, specifically the dearth of heavy, medium sour crudes and the deluge of naphtha-rich light crudes. The tightness has been exacerbated by Venezuelan output declines,..

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  • Not the end of the world

    Not the end of the world cover image Published 25 Feb 2019 by
    Worries about the global economy continue to cap crude prices even as the physical market is roaring ahead at a time when it should be extremely subdued given refinery works. These worries have merit—after all, near-final data for December show global oil demand fell y/y by the most since 2009, d..

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  • Spread and regret

    Spread and regret cover image Published 18 Feb 2019 by
    Users licensed for the data service can access our global balances.Even though we are trading peak turnaround barrels and there’s plenty of chatter about run cuts, voluntary and involuntary OPEC production cuts have tightened the physical crude market. If the market holds around th..

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  • Lipstick on a pig

    Lipstick on a pig cover image Published 11 Feb 2019 by
    Users licensed for the data service can access our global balances.Despite renewed worries about Chinese demand and the fate of the OPEC+ deal, physical crudes are holding up well, with West African differentials and global heavy and medium crudes strong. It would be hard to argue..

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