Atlantic basin cracks and spreads could remain under pressure until the summer despite heavy European turnarounds. Underlying demand trends are still intact—but it will take longer to work off the overhang that has built up than we had initially expected because supply is higher in some places.Wa..
Gasoline bulls will need to see significant buying in the coming weeks or they are likely to head for the doors. While scheduled turnaround work in Europe is heavy this spring, FCC maintenance on the US Gulf Coast is light. This means competition in the export market could be intense, especially..
Much of the oil market is starting to accept that the IMO 2020 specification shift for marine fuels is going to happen, but forward prices still have not totally adjusted because the market has not fully digested the fact that the effects of the specification change will be felt long before 1 Jan..
Diesel bulls must still play a waiting game. European maintenance does not peak until May, two months later than last year, and demand in Q1 18 has been hobbled by unusually warm weather. European heating oil demand likely fell by at least 0.2 mb/d y/y in January, as Germany and France recorded t..
The turmoil in light ends markets has grown over the last month. In addition to the rout in naphtha values, the market must now deal with China’s latest crackdown on gasoline component imports, as well as the bankruptcy of the largest refiner on the US East Coast, which may upend the RINs market...
The sudden rally in crude prices that took Brent above $70 a barrel could not have come at a worse time for fuel oil, with Pakistan slashing imports just as Middle Eastern outflows have picked up and Russian exports climb to their usual year-end highs, so cracks have fallen hard, imperilling the..
Diesel markets appear to be stuck in a rut as envy of the price gains in crude has translated into frustration that cold weather in the US has not proven to be much of a price catalyst for the fuel. As a result, diesel spreads have given up much of the gains won in the initial euphoria over the c..
Gasoline markets are facing a tough period that will only ease with the coming of spring. Demand is seasonally weak and refinery runs are high. Naphtha, a bright spot for light ends of late, has dimmed slightly as competition from LPG has picked up. Asian gasoline markets have plunged into contan..
Fuel oil markets remain uninspired despite some recent positive news out of Asia. South Korea suffered renewed nuclear power disruptions while the Indian courts lifted a ban on using of petcoke as feedstock. The market is well supplied in the near term, with inflows of West of Suez fuel oil into..
The conditions for a tight Q1 18 are drifting into place. In addition to heavy Middle Eastern turnarounds, Indian demand is set to pick up by 0.1 mb/d y/y in Q1 18, easily outpacing domestic supply growth, while fears of a flood of Chinese exports early next year are receding. Price-related deman..
The market has had a look at December gasoline balances and does not like what it sees. Stocks are on the rise and although refining margins in Europe have come under heavy pressure, US refineries are still going to run hard this month, particularly in PADD 2. Builds in PADD 3 will be kept under..
The fuel oil market is caught up in a soft patch. Supplies are not giving up any significant ground in key producing regions, as refiners maximise runs to capture still-strong margins, and the seasonal wind-down in maintenance from end-November will do nothing to alter this picture. September saw..
Over the past few weeks, gasoil timespreads have slumped into contango at the front while remaining firmly in backwardation across most of Q1 18. Part of this divergence can be attributed to over-zealous positioning, but maintenance deferrals, following the spike in margins after Hurricane Harvey..
This report marks the launch of our new European naphtha balances, supplementing our existing Asian naphtha balances.Very strong East of Suez gasoline demand has starved the US of imports over the last several weeks, but while relief is unlikely for a little while longer, the late-season Atlantic..
Fuel oil has been largely treading water for the past month, but relatively high stock levels at key pricing points mean there is little enthusiasm for aggressive positions in the near term. Looking ahead to 2018, however, the market is facing a renewed tightening of the supply side. The Russian..