Europe Outlook
Europe is a complex and highly interconnected natural gas market. This monthly publication combines forward-looking market commentary along with detailed supply and demand data. The report provides price forecasts for the NBP and Continental gas markets (TTF, Zeebrugge and NCG) and in depth analysis of European supply and demand balances. Outlook: Europe includes country-by-country data for all key centres of supply and demand including Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain and the UK.
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Downhill
Published 11 Jun 2014
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Another mild month in May has left European demand in the doldrums and European gas prices continuing their steady march downwards. D+1 NBP is now trading well below the 40 p/therm level. While the closure of the IUK pipeline until 26 June is weighing heavily on the prompt, the fundamentals are s.. -
Who needs a bear?
Published 12 May 2014
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European gas prices remain strained between the heavy downwards pull of a very comfortable supply and demand balance, and the less convincing upward pull of the threat of supply disruptions. Turning to the downward pressure, another very mild month in April led to some more double digit y/y deman.. -
Risk off, risk on
Published 10 Apr 2014
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While European gas markets have had to deal with the excitement of a major geopolitical event that is more relevant to gas than oil, a very mild March has topped off a warm winter that has left the summer balances looking far more relaxed than anticipated. With this March being compared with an e.. -
Russian roulette
Published 11 Mar 2014
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2014 was all looking so relaxed for the gas market. A very mild Q1 14 weakened residential and commercial demand levels and, with supply being more than adequate, storage levels looked set to end winter higher by 14 bcm y/y. The resulting lower demand for gas to be reinjected into storage over th.. -
Looking high, feeling low
Published 11 Feb 2014
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After a mild January, the promise of a tight 2014 gas market is sinking in the flood of wet and warmer than usual weather seen across the northern Europe and Asia. A mild December followed by a mild January has left demand across the European markets down by some 6 bcm in January alone. With base.. -
2014: Will the earth move?
Published 17 Jan 2014
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2013 was all about the weather, with a sustained cold spell at the end of the last winter supporting prices to average 14% higher y/y. Going into 2014, it is all about the weather again and a run of almost six weeks of warmer (but much wetter) than average weather has made the market highly beari.. -
Cold wave
Published 10 Dec 2013
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Heading into December, the questions in the European gas market are all about how cold it gets as the NBP looks to be very jumpy this year, with cold spells seeing the prompt go up towards the 73 p/therm marker and more moderate temperatures taking it below 70 p/therm. This shows the sensitivity... -
Russia calling
Published 13 Nov 2013
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The biggest stories in European gas markets over October are both to do with Russian gas. The first is the large ramp-up in Russian production witnessed in October (higher y/y by 8.5 bcm). This increase, which follows the steady y/y increases seen since July, announces that the Yamal super-field.. -
Starting short
Published 15 Oct 2013
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September in the European gas market saw hub prices stay stuck in their 5 p/therm trading band around the 65 p/therm level - a pattern that has characterised all of the Q3 13 summer period. While the weather was variable, with first colder and then warmer than normal temperatures, we did not see.. -
Flatlining
Published 24 Sep 2013
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The European gas market has come through a summer where generally warm weather, although not much different from average levels, was the back-drop against which hub prices were stuck in a very narrow band around the 65 p/therm level. Over these two months, end-user demand was poor with residentia.. -
The importance of filling storage
Published 6 Aug 2013
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The European gas market has been in a period of catch-up after the cold March and April, as it has worked to inject sufficient gas into storage for the next winter. Outside of that demand for gas to go into storage, end user gas demand remains weak with residential and commercial demand now in th.. -
A difficult balancing act
Published 7 Jun 2013
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A cold March and April have altered the supply and demand balances for the European gas market in 2013, moving a system that was fairly comfortable at the start of the year to one that looks tight all the way through the rest of 2013. The prolonged winter, and the consequent impact on residential..
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