Europe Outlook

Europe is a complex and highly interconnected natural gas market. This monthly publication combines forward-looking market commentary along with detailed supply and demand data. The report provides price forecasts for the NBP and Continental gas markets (TTF, Zeebrugge and NCG) and in depth analysis of European supply and demand balances. Outlook: Europe includes country-by-country data for all key centres of supply and demand including Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain and the UK.

  • Russian roulette

    Russian roulette cover image Published 16 May 2019 by
    The summer outlook remains bearish, as Europe failed in April to make any dent in the 25 bcm y/y EU storage surplus and looks set to finish May with that overhang at around 23 bcm. The same question persists as previously—how will the market balance with so much additional gas in storage and 16 b..

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  • Too much, too fast

    Too much, too fast cover image Published 12 Apr 2019 by
    The narrative around European gas markets has seen the bearish summer story replaced with something closer to bemusement as an unexpected repricing upwards has left the market less certain of direction. While the price moves up at EU hubs had some triggers—a surge in EUA prices, some colder April..

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  • Tank tops

    Tank tops cover image Published 14 Mar 2019 by
    The narrative around European gas markets has continued to feed the bearish summer story with a far milder-than-normal February leaving gas in storage up by 15 bcm y/y. By 9 March, mild weather had seen that y/y overhang grow to 19.4 bcm. While March weather is looking unsettled, the bias to abov..

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  • Super summer bear

    Super summer bear cover image Published 15 Feb 2019 by
    The narrative around European gas markets has shifted to be very bearish following a Q4 18 featuring milder-than-normal temperatures and a January with largely normal temperatures. The bears are being fed by bulging European stocks, which were 4.4 bcm higher y/y by the end of January. Even an end..

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  • Pig out

    Pig out cover image Published 15 Jan 2019 by
    2019 will be the Chinese year of the pig, but the Gregorian 2019 has started out with Europe dining out on LNG, as the long-expected but much-delayed tip of the global gas market into something close to oversupply appears to finally be happening. As a result, the EU gas market is showing signs of..

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  • Back for good?

    Back for good? cover image Published 19 Dec 2018 by
    Counter to our expectations, Q4 18 has been the quarter in which LNG supply to Europe has started to increase. Incremental sendout of LNG in November outpaced incremental port receipts by around 1.3 bcm as full storage tanks made some room for incoming cargoes. For Q1 19, the prognosis for increm..

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  • First taste

    First taste cover image Published 15 Nov 2018 by
    A change in weather forecasts in mid-November altered expectations for the second half of this month, with Europe promised its first taste of colder than normal winter weather. The first half of November was mild, contributing to y/y demand reductions in res-com, so storage inventories improved...

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  • Spikes ahead

    Spikes ahead cover image Published 19 Oct 2018 by
    One of the developments of the year has been the rise in gas prices, with the TTF Nov-18 contract some 54% higher than the Nov-17 average outturn price. The increase has happened with little change in EU gas burn that could be directly attributed to any price-sensitive response. As we have consis..

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  • Bulls on parade

    Bulls on parade cover image Published 24 Sep 2018 by
    We are on the cusp of the gas winter and the TTF M+1 contract has been surging upwards, with Q1-19 closing above 29.0 €/MWh by mid-September, the highest closing price in a decade. The root causes of the rally are likely to stay around for a while, with both the stubborn y/y storage deficit..

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  • Running dry

    Running dry cover image Published 13 Jul 2018 by
    The TTF M+1 contract closed in a 21.2-22.7 €/MWh range over June. The contract was largely driven by the upward moves coal and carbon prices, although the summer contracts did soften in relative terms. Gas prices are now trading consistently below the fuel switch level to which they have gra..

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  • Sail away

    Sail away cover image Published 15 Jun 2018 by
    The TTF M+1 contract has remained well supported over the last month. The contract was largely driven upwards by the strength in coal and carbon prices, which has kept upward pressure on the fuel switch triggers and that has helped the summer TTF contracts head above 22 €/MWh. The sharp fall..

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  • All about injection

    All about injection cover image Published 15 May 2018 by
    The TTF M+1 contract has remained well supported over the last few weeks, with much bigger injections into storage amid modest supply keeping the market tight. Strength in coal and carbon prices has kept upward pressure on the fuel switch triggers and that has helped that TTF contract head above..

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  • End of an era

    End of an era cover image Published 12 Apr 2018 by
    As Europe slowly leaves the heating season behind, the European gas market is looking tight, with a y/y storage deficit of almost 10 bcm, 80% of which is accounted for by NW Europe’s storage facilities. The imperative this summer is to inject gas into storage. This need has been made even s..

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  • Summer reset

    Summer reset cover image Published 14 Mar 2018 by
    After being comfortable in January, the European gas market has been anything but in February and early March. A series of storms blew in very cold weather that ballooned demand and stretched the NW European markets. As a result, the European gas markets have been turned on their head—from..

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  • Go low again

    Go low again cover image Published 15 Feb 2018 by
    2018 in the European gas market started with a very mild January that did its best to take the steam out of gas prices. TTF M+1 prices dropped by almost 6% over the month, dropping below 18 €/MWh. A cold start to February has reversed some of that fall. A number of supply outages have led to..

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