Europe Outlook

Europe is a complex and highly interconnected natural gas market. This monthly publication combines forward-looking market commentary along with detailed supply and demand data. The report provides price forecasts for the NBP and Continental gas markets (TTF, Zeebrugge and NCG) and in depth analysis of European supply and demand balances. Outlook: Europe includes country-by-country data for all key centres of supply and demand including Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain and the UK.

  • Lost in transit

    Lost in transit cover image Published 14 Nov 2019 by
    The outlook is bearish for the rest of the winter, and even more so for the following summer. Over the last six weeks as temperatures have dropped and demand and prompt prices have moved higher, risk premium has come out of the curve, leaving further downside to Q1-20 prices limited.The downward..

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  • As you were

    As you were cover image Published 11 Oct 2019 by
    While the first half of September was characterised by potential risks coming into the winter balances, the last few weeks have seen fears about the potential impact of these risks subside. As a result, the European prompt gas market has been crushed, with early-October TTF day-ahead prices tradi..

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  • Winter Outlook

    Winter Outlook cover image Published 13 Sep 2019 by
    The EU gas market looked like it had been heading into the winter gas season with balances weak and TTF day-ahead gas prices trading way down below 8.0 €/MWh. The overarching bearishness for the coming winter contracts did reverse on the spate of news on OPAL, Groningen and potential EDF nuclear..

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  • Searching for storage

    Searching for storage cover image Published 11 Jul 2019 by
    At the start of Q2 19, we talked about the importance of getting the 25 bcm y/y storage surplus down so that Q3 19 prices would not be as pressured when injection rates slow and capacity tank tops are reached. We are now starting Q3 19 with European storage still 24.5 bcm higher y/y at 73.8 bcm,..

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  • Hitting parity

    Hitting parity cover image Published 12 Jun 2019 by
    For the NW Europe hubs, the TTF looks more bearish than it did at the start of May. The y/y storage gap dropped in the first two weeks by almost 2 bcm to 23.8 bcm, but it ended the month at that level. With the first week of June increasing the y/y storage surplus, there is real concern that we w..

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  • Russian roulette

    Russian roulette cover image Published 16 May 2019 by
    The summer outlook remains bearish, as Europe failed in April to make any dent in the 25 bcm y/y EU storage surplus and looks set to finish May with that overhang at around 23 bcm. The same question persists as previously—how will the market balance with so much additional gas in storage an..

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  • Too much, too fast

    Too much, too fast cover image Published 12 Apr 2019 by
    The narrative around European gas markets has seen the bearish summer story replaced with something closer to bemusement as an unexpected repricing upwards has left the market less certain of direction. While the price moves up at EU hubs had some triggers—a surge in EUA prices, some colder..

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  • Tank tops

    Tank tops cover image Published 14 Mar 2019 by
    The narrative around European gas markets has continued to feed the bearish summer story with a far milder-than-normal February leaving gas in storage up by 15 bcm y/y. By 9 March, mild weather had seen that y/y overhang grow to 19.4 bcm. While March weather is looking unsettled, the bias to abov..

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  • Super summer bear

    Super summer bear cover image Published 15 Feb 2019 by
    The narrative around European gas markets has shifted to be very bearish following a Q4 18 featuring milder-than-normal temperatures and a January with largely normal temperatures. The bears are being fed by bulging European stocks, which were 4.4 bcm higher y/y by the end of January. Even an end..

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  • Pig out

    Pig out cover image Published 15 Jan 2019 by
    2019 will be the Chinese year of the pig, but the Gregorian 2019 has started out with Europe dining out on LNG, as the long-expected but much-delayed tip of the global gas market into something close to oversupply appears to finally be happening. As a result, the EU gas market is showing signs of..

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  • Back for good?

    Back for good? cover image Published 19 Dec 2018 by
    Counter to our expectations, Q4 18 has been the quarter in which LNG supply to Europe has started to increase. Incremental sendout of LNG in November outpaced incremental port receipts by around 1.3 bcm as full storage tanks made some room for incoming cargoes. For Q1 19, the prognosis for increm..

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  • First taste

    First taste cover image Published 15 Nov 2018 by
    A change in weather forecasts in mid-November altered expectations for the second half of this month, with Europe promised its first taste of colder than normal winter weather. The first half of November was mild, contributing to y/y demand reductions in res-com, so storage inventories improved...

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  • Spikes ahead

    Spikes ahead cover image Published 19 Oct 2018 by
    One of the developments of the year has been the rise in gas prices, with the TTF Nov-18 contract some 54% higher than the Nov-17 average outturn price. The increase has happened with little change in EU gas burn that could be directly attributed to any price-sensitive response. As we have consis..

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  • Bulls on parade

    Bulls on parade cover image Published 24 Sep 2018 by
    We are on the cusp of the gas winter and the TTF M+1 contract has been surging upwards, with Q1-19 closing above 29.0 €/MWh by mid-September, the highest closing price in a decade. The root causes of the rally are likely to stay around for a while, with both the stubborn y/y storage deficit..

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  • Running dry

    Running dry cover image Published 13 Jul 2018 by
    The TTF M+1 contract closed in a 21.2-22.7 €/MWh range over June. The contract was largely driven by the upward moves coal and carbon prices, although the summer contracts did soften in relative terms. Gas prices are now trading consistently below the fuel switch level to which they have gra..

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