Middle East

  • Losing steam

    Losing steam cover image Published 18 Feb 2013 by
    Following four straight weeks of price increases, the upward momentum in Brent seems to have lost some steam, stemming from a combination of waning sentiment on the back of weaker than expected macro data releases, and more importantly, a weak physical picture, whereby physical grades have all lo..

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  • Middle East oil demand – Dec 2012

    Middle East oil demand – Dec 2012 cover image Published 18 Feb 2013 by
    Oil demand in the Middle East continued to ease in line with seasonal temperatures in December, totalling 4.64 mb/d, lower m/m by 52 thousand b/d but higher y/y by 34 thousand b/d. Across 2012, Middle Eastern oil demand in the six main countries totalled a record 4.94 mb/d, higher y/y by 0.18 mb/..

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  • Key agency forecasts

    Key agency forecasts cover image Published 13 Feb 2013 by
    The past few days has seen the release of key agency forecasts, with OPEC and the EIA monthly reports released yesterday whilst the IEA report was released this morning. Upward revisions to 2012 and 2013 global oil demand are the most prominent features in the latest forecasts from the OPEC and E..

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  • OPEC oil data – January 2013

    OPEC oil data – January 2013 cover image Published 13 Feb 2013 by
    The average of third party estimates that Energy Aspects collects pegs January OPEC-12 output at 30.38 mb/d, lower y/y by 0.57 mb/d, and declining y/y for the second month running, following downward revisions to December's figures. January saw the fifth straight month of output declines, lower m..

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  • The end of a trend?

    The end of a trend? cover image Published 11 Feb 2013 by
    Front month Brent has hit a nine-month peak above $118 per barrel and settled higher in 16 of the last 18 sessions. No one headline spurred the move higher; instead the move resembled a pent up desire to break out at all costs. In our view, aside from technical factors like large unwinding of WTI..

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  • Super 'WTI-Brent' Bowl

    Super 'WTI-Brent' Bowl cover image Published 4 Feb 2013 by
    Supported by macroeconomic improvements, some worsening in the MENA geopolitical backdrop and the gradual improvement in fundamentals that have been in place since November, oil prices around the world increased substantially over the course of last week, with Brent the standout performer. Togeth..

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  • Signs of MENAce

    Signs of MENAce cover image Published 28 Jan 2013 by
    The global oil market has tightened considerably over the past few months, not least due to an improvement in oil demand, but also because of supply shortfalls emerging from OPEC nations, primarily Libya and Iraq. Iraqi oil production fell by 0.13 mb/d m/m in December and is set to have remained..

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  • Fundamentals January 2013

    Fundamentals January 2013 cover image Published 25 Jan 2013 by
    Fundamentals is our monthly review of global oil data, this is the January edition The first macroeconomic numbers from 2013 suggest a generally positive environment, with rebounding data points from China and signs that Europe is turning a corner. Consequently, oil demand growth has picked up in..

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  • Jet fuel outlook 2013

    Jet fuel outlook 2013 cover image Published 25 Jan 2013 by
    In 2012-to-November, total airline passenger traffic was higher y/y by 5.3% and freight was lower by 1.6%, highlighting the weakness in global economic activity. Stronger economic growth forecast for 2013 and tight capacity management by carriers create the potential for improvement airline profi..

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  • Refined challenges

    Refined challenges cover image Published 21 Jan 2013 by
    Last week saw the resurgence of geopolitics in the oil market, with Algeria in the limelight. While we do not believe Algeria's oil and gas production is necessarily at risk of a shutdown, an important fallout from the Algerian event could be its impact on Libya, given the increasingly fragile po..

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  • Middle East oil demand – Nov 2012

    Middle East oil demand – Nov 2012 cover image Published 20 Jan 2013 by
    Oil demand in the Middle East eased in line with seasonal temperatures, totaling 4.74 mb/d, lower m/m by 0.3 mb/d and more importantly, lower y/y by 0.35 mb/d, although it should be noted that Kuwaiti and Iranian demand figures were unreported and hence Energy Aspects estimates are subject to rev..

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  • Key agency forecasts

    Key agency forecasts cover image Published 18 Jan 2013 by
    The past ten days has seen the release of several key agency forecasts, with OPEC's monthly report released on Wednesday and the IEA releasing its OMR this morning. Meanwhile the EIA's short-term energy outlook was released on the 8 Jan. We summarise the key takeaways in this brief review. Althou..

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  • The oil world in 2013

    The oil world in 2013 cover image Published 15 Jan 2013 by
    Our first In Focus of the year analyses 13 themes that we believe will shape the oil world in 2013. These range from the prospects for China's economy to the implications of global refinery capacity additions over the year ahead. We set out to answer key questions that will occupy the oil markets..

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  • Spreading your bets

    Spreading your bets cover image Published 14 Jan 2013 by
    Last week was dominated by reports of Saudi Arabia reducing their output in December to 9 mb/d and by the further narrowing in WTI-Brent differentials. On the former, our view is that the Kingdom's output policy of continuing to adjust its supply to satisfy demand remains intact and the recent re..

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  • More of the same

    More of the same cover image Published 7 Jan 2013 by
    Heading into 2013, the news cycle has seen more of the same themes of 2012 – continued instability in the Middle East, improvement in the macroeconomic outlook led by China, further strong growth in US tight oils output and more debates on WTI-Brent. However, the dominant story has been the fisca..

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