Matthew Holland
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Emerging menace
Published 21 Sep 2018
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Emerging market risks are growing for diesel, including Turkey’s slowing imports and Brazil’s unsustainable subsidy programme. Turkish marketers are running down stocks to meet demand and preserve foreign exchange, which is pushing Indian and Saudi diesel into other European markets... -
Blend Off
Published 24 Aug 2018
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A curious spate of incidents involving bad-quality bunker fuel underscores the challenges the industry faces over the coming months as suppliers drain tanks and start making new blends. The problems have spurred suggestions that IMO-compliant VLSFO could face similar challenges, lulling MGO bulls.. -
Countdown
Published 17 Aug 2018
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The situation in ARA is getting better for bullish bets. The proximate cause is refinery problems, some caused by the heat in Europe, that have tightened up short-term balances just as refinery runs were supposed to be at maximum levels. Last month, we had forecast European diesel inventories wou.. -
Hot and bothered
Published 10 Aug 2018
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Refinery problems and stronger-than-expected demand have tightened the global gasoline market over the last month. US inventories may struggle to return to early July levels of 239 mb over the rest of the summer if operational problems continue to bedevil refiners. While there may be little risk.. -
Bab’s your uncle
Published 27 Jul 2018
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It’s too soon to write off the strength in the market. Due to the drop in eastbound long-haul shipments in recent months, inflows into Singapore will be low again in August and with the US continuing to push for maximum cuts in Iranian oil exports, including fuel oil, Asian supply may conti.. -
Pleasure and pain
Published 20 Jul 2018
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Given where Atlantic basin diesel stocks are, ICE gasoil timespreads are clearly underperforming relative to recent history. The risk-reward equation alone suggests the autumn timespreads are cheap, though stocks are set to build through August, which is likely to limit the upside in the very sho.. -
Risky basis
Published 13 Jul 2018
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RBOB gasoline is tight on the USEC, but conditions in the broader global market have hardly improved. Combined stocks in PADDs 1, 2 and 3 moved into a small surplus in early July, marking the first time that stocks have been higher y/y since Hurricane Harvey. ARA and Singapore stocks are tracking.. -
Tight then loose
Published 22 Jun 2018
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Genuine tightness continues to grip fuel oil markets largely due to the challenges of making on-specification material, sending prompt timespreads up above $5 per tonne in both Asia and Northwest Europe. A dearth of exports to Asia from the Atlantic basin in recent months and structural shifts in.. -
The interregnum
Published 15 Jun 2018
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ICE gasoil spreads have trended lower over the past month (barring the expiry of the June contract) thanks to the quirks of ARA pricing, but elsewhere the data continue to back our view that stocks are drawing hard. Indeed, if the spike in June prices on a few refinery wobbles and the risk o.. -
Mo’ gas
Published 8 Jun 2018
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The struggles of Atlantic basin gasoline this June should serve as a warning for the bulls. Even with refinery outages surprising to the upside, supply is too high. In the past two years, the ‘solver’ for excess US gasoline production has been a major US Gulf Coast disruption. What wo.. -
Constraints ahead
Published 1 Jun 2018
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LPG prices have been unseasonably strong over the last month, posting gains against crude and naphtha as the whole energy complex has rallied amid fears that the resumption of US sanctions on importers of Iranian oil will trigger a shortfall in the global oil market. While steady US exports have.. -
Parabolic problem
Published 25 May 2018
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Fuel oil markets have been roiled by the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear accord. Not only does the market face the loss of heavy crude from Iran, as well as its exports of fuel oil, but deeper structural problems in the market have been made much more prominent. Huge.. -
ARA is Cushing
Published 18 May 2018
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Diesel balances are still hugely bullish but the market is struggling to find ways to take a view on these balances, with ARA gasoil markets confounding traders time and again this year. We don’t think the benchmark is broken, but the market needs to keep in mind that the idiosyncrasies of.. -
Dog’s dinner
Published 11 May 2018
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Gasoline is getting hit from both sides. Demand is coming under pressure from higher prices and supply is powering ahead despite weak gasoline cracks. The strength in diesel margins means that refining margins are unlikely to turn negative in any meaningful way. Refinery breakdowns might bring so.. -
Forced exit
Published 4 May 2018
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Propane markets are entering the stockbuild season with US propane swaps more steeply backwardated than they were last year, when the market was far more preoccupied with the tightening supply situation. But it is far from clear that shorting this market will yield a quick win. Backwardated swaps..
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