Macro Energy

Volatility in the energy markets directly impacts equity, fixed-income, currency, and commodity markets. The Macro Energy service from Energy Aspects offers a specific focus on how energy prices are being driven by supply and demand fundamentals and geopolitics, and how that in turn will feed into risks and opportunities across a whole host of markets.

  • Florence and the machine

    Florence and the machine Cover image Published 21 Sep 2018 by

    Many of you have asked us how the escalating tariff battle between the US and China will affect trade and what that means for the global economy. Several banks have been pounding the table with increasing volume and force over the potential for a sudden shock to GDP growth next month once the US-..

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  • Entering the tweet zone

    Entering the tweet zone Cover image Published 14 Sep 2018 by

    Brent crude prices surged early in the week, kissing $80 per barrel and putting the entire oil market on 24-hour tweet watch. Earlier this year, when oil prices reached $80, America’s tweeter-in-chief took to social media to express his displeasure at high prices, telling OPEC to do something to..

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  • Big mac attack

    Big mac attack Cover image Published 7 Sep 2018 by

    Crude has failed to catch a bid even as prompt Brent spreads have rallied in the last week, with the paper markets growing increasingly wary of the macro backdrop. The tightening in the sour crude market is becoming noticeable as the Iran sanctions begin to bite and, as sour margins get squeezed,..

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  • Check the expiry date

    Check the expiry date Cover image Published 31 Aug 2018 by

    It’s been quite a summer. And perhaps it’s fitting that the Brent October contract should be expiring on the Friday of the Labor Day weekend. After all, Labor Day is the unofficial last day of summer in the US as most kids are about to go back to school and everyone has taken their summer holiday..

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  • We now return to our regularly scheduled programming

    We now return to our regularly scheduled programming Cover image Published 24 Aug 2018 by

    You gotta love the markets. Last week was as dark as it could be for oil bulls. Over the course of August, Brent prices had fallen by some 8%, breaking outside of the weekly price channel established since June 2017 to the downside, with the US dollar (USD) rallying and emerging markets (EM) fall..

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  • Their cheatin' hearts

    Their cheatin' hearts Cover image Published 17 Aug 2018 by

    Crude has come under pressure this week as currency crises in several emerging markets (EMs), most notably Turkey, are ringing alarm bells over the sustainability of demand growth just as inventories in the US are building counter-seasonally. The depreciation in EM currencies versus the dollar me..

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  • No Pooh zone

    No Pooh zone Cover image Published 10 Aug 2018 by

    This week, our Head of China, Michal Meidan, offers a perspective on China’s responses to Trump’s trade escalation.Many had hoped that after a series of escalatory exchanges this summer in the trade row between the world’s two largest economies, sanity and reason would finally prevail. But too ma..

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  • Sweet tooth

    Sweet tooth Cover image Published 3 Aug 2018 by

    July ended with crude oil prices selling off, leading to the largest one-month fall in the price of WTI since July 2016. The Brent market remains caught in a no man’s land where prompt physical fundamentals remain weak even as forward fundamentals look decidedly tighter. But even so, crude remain..

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  • Is there a demand problem?

    Is there a demand problem? Cover image Published 27 Jul 2018 by

    While our impulse is to simply shout ‘NO!’ and end the note right there, we thought we would expand on why demand is doing just fine. We have learnt, perhaps too often, that in the oil market, perception can sometimes be more important than reality. Eventually, reality will win out, but only afte..

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  • Is the bull narrative intact?

    Is the bull narrative intact? Cover image Published 20 Jul 2018 by

    It was a great week for creative speech writers, as it saw a lot of back-pedalling by policy makers who went into full damage control mode to fix dumb things they had said in recent weeks. Trump had to walk back comments made at his press conference in Helsinki given that he sided with Russian Pr..

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  • Double jeopardy

    Double jeopardy Cover image Published 13 Jul 2018 by

    Crude oil markets, already feeling soggy from record US exports and a recent surge in GCC production and exports, collapsed this week from a double whammy of Libyan crude exports resuming and the Trump administration escalating its trade tiff with China.Ironically, a third potential catalyst, a p..

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  • This one goes to 11

    This one goes to 11 Cover image Published 29 Jun 2018 by

    Oil prices have rebounded sharply since the OPEC meeting one week ago, in part due to inconsistent Saudi signals about whether the surge in production from the Kingdom will be effective immediately. Since Saudi Energy minister Khalid al-Falih said in Vienna that OPEC+ will be increasing its produ..

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  • Filtering out the noise

    Filtering out the noise Cover image Published 15 Jun 2018 by

    Note: Next week we will provide an update from the OPEC meeting in Vienna instead of the usual Digest.For all the hysteria about various proposals for a production hike from Saudi Arabia and Russia, it is important to remember that Saudi energy minister Khalid al-Falih has yet to disclose publicl..

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  • Eye of the needle

    Eye of the needle Cover image Published 8 Jun 2018 by

    There is no doubt that Saudi Arabia is under intense political pressure to get oil prices down going into the OPEC meeting. The ‘why’ is a little harder to understand. It could be because they know something about the US administration’s intentions vis-à-vis Iran and/or Venezuela, or it could be..

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  • OPEC fatigue

    OPEC fatigue Cover image Published 1 Jun 2018 by

    It is never a good sign when there are still three weeks to go before an OPEC meeting and even the journalists are getting sick of delegates calling them to recount the latest twists and turns in the OPEC/Russia saga. But journalists and traders alike have been scrambling since Russian energy min..

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