Volatility in the energy markets directly impacts equity, fixed-income, currency, and commodity markets. The Macro Energy service from Energy Aspects offers a specific focus on how energy prices are being driven by supply and demand fundamentals and geopolitics, and how that in turn will feed into risks and opportunities across a whole host of markets.
Many of you have asked us how the escalating tariff battle between the US and China will affect trade and what that means for the global economy. Several banks have been pounding the table with increasing volume and force over the potential for a sudden shock to GDP growth next month once the US-..
Brent crude prices surged early in the week, kissing $80 per barrel and putting the entire oil market on 24-hour tweet watch. Earlier this year, when oil prices reached $80, America’s tweeter-in-chief took to social media to express his displeasure at high prices, telling OPEC to do something to..
Crude has failed to catch a bid even as prompt Brent spreads have rallied in the last week, with the paper markets growing increasingly wary of the macro backdrop. The tightening in the sour crude market is becoming noticeable as the Iran sanctions begin to bite and, as sour margins get squeezed,..
It’s been quite a summer. And perhaps it’s fitting that the Brent October contract should be expiring on the Friday of the Labor Day weekend. After all, Labor Day is the unofficial last day of summer in the US as most kids are about to go back to school and everyone has taken their summer holiday..
You gotta love the markets. Last week was as dark as it could be for oil bulls. Over the course of August, Brent prices had fallen by some 8%, breaking outside of the weekly price channel established since June 2017 to the downside, with the US dollar (USD) rallying and emerging markets (EM) fall..
Crude has come under pressure this week as currency crises in several emerging markets (EMs), most notably Turkey, are ringing alarm bells over the sustainability of demand growth just as inventories in the US are building counter-seasonally. The depreciation in EM currencies versus the dollar me..
This week, our Head of China, Michal Meidan, offers a perspective on China’s responses to Trump’s trade escalation.Many had hoped that after a series of escalatory exchanges this summer in the trade row between the world’s two largest economies, sanity and reason would finally prevail. But too ma..
July ended with crude oil prices selling off, leading to the largest one-month fall in the price of WTI since July 2016. The Brent market remains caught in a no man’s land where prompt physical fundamentals remain weak even as forward fundamentals look decidedly tighter. But even so, crude remain..
While our impulse is to simply shout ‘NO!’ and end the note right there, we thought we would expand on why demand is doing just fine. We have learnt, perhaps too often, that in the oil market, perception can sometimes be more important than reality. Eventually, reality will win out, but only afte..
It was a great week for creative speech writers, as it saw a lot of back-pedalling by policy makers who went into full damage control mode to fix dumb things they had said in recent weeks. Trump had to walk back comments made at his press conference in Helsinki given that he sided with Russian Pr..
Crude oil markets, already feeling soggy from record US exports and a recent surge in GCC production and exports, collapsed this week from a double whammy of Libyan crude exports resuming and the Trump administration escalating its trade tiff with China.Ironically, a third potential catalyst, a p..
Oil prices have rebounded sharply since the OPEC meeting one week ago, in part due to inconsistent Saudi signals about whether the surge in production from the Kingdom will be effective immediately. Since Saudi Energy minister Khalid al-Falih said in Vienna that OPEC+ will be increasing its produ..
Note: Next week we will provide an update from the OPEC meeting in Vienna instead of the usual Digest.For all the hysteria about various proposals for a production hike from Saudi Arabia and Russia, it is important to remember that Saudi energy minister Khalid al-Falih has yet to disclose publicl..
There is no doubt that Saudi Arabia is under intense political pressure to get oil prices down going into the OPEC meeting. The ‘why’ is a little harder to understand. It could be because they know something about the US administration’s intentions vis-à-vis Iran and/or Venezuela, or it could be..
It is never a good sign when there are still three weeks to go before an OPEC meeting and even the journalists are getting sick of delegates calling them to recount the latest twists and turns in the OPEC/Russia saga. But journalists and traders alike have been scrambling since Russian energy min..