Hurricane Harvey appears to have done little major damage to key US Gulf Coast production and export infrastructure, but the delays to US exports caused by the storm have heightened supply concerns in international markets. If US propane exports average 1 mb/d in Q4 17, which would be just 60 tho..
Propane exports have regained strength in July, raising the possibility of an even tighter propane market than expected through H2 17. Exports rose m/m by 0.17 mb/d to 0.8 mb/d last month, and could be bolstered further throughout Q3 17 and into Q4 17 if seasonal buying increases. Pushing ahead i..
Waterborne LPG markets could be in for a rough patch in Q3 17 following massive Chinese imports in May and June, which helped allay market fears that a structural shift was underway following two months of very weak demand. Chinese buyers likely overbought in May and June and imports are likely t..
Waterborne LPG markets are hitting choppy seas, but US propane exports have only slowed modestly despite tight domestic stocks. US propane supplies and inventories are still too low to support recent export levels of around 0.9 mb/d all the way through summer. However, global LPG demand growth ha..
LPG markets have turned a corner following a slowdown in demand and with US production returning to growth. Mont Belvieu propane has offered the best returns amongst the main refined products over the past year, outperforming both gasoline and diesel. Propane’s strength has been the result of fal..
LPG forward curves have weakened as demand slows from the peak winter months, and most markets have moved into seasonal contango. We are still bullish on global LPG, however, because the dynamics of US production haven’t changed: supply growth will be limited through Q3 17. Incremental propane su..
The underlying data for the balances is now available to download as a part of this service. Propane prices have weakened considerably from their multi-year highs over the past couple of weeks, but they still remain at around 50% of crude in the US, which is not a bad place to be after another di..
US propane curves are starting to signal a serious lack of production, and the market will not be able to drill itself out of this shortfall in the near term. After grappling for several years with oversupply, US propane markets now need to adjust to tepid supply growth and strong export demand...
Global LPG markets have rallied on colder weather in Europe and Asia, robust petrochemical demand, and falling gas plant supplies in the US. Propane swap curves have moved into steeper backwardation, but the strength is no longer limited to propane, as US butane prices spiked in late-December, du..
LPG prices have risen sharply after OPEC’s move to cut oil production. The first fear is that the surge in oil prices will be bearish for LPG as higher prices will encourage additional US shale production. This may happen in H2 17, but US NGL fractionation spreads will be marginal until Q2..
The first real cold has arrived in Asia, and as heating and petrochemical demand picks up, we see modest upside to both prices and timespreads in Q4 16. The colder temperatures have come early, at a time when China is already concerned about its stocks of heating fuel for the winter. However, amp..
Global LPG markets are still vulnerable to downturns in demand, as evidenced by how quickly prices came off in Asia due to unplanned ethylene cracker outages, but with demand moving higher seasonally and US LPG supplies no longer growing, the near term picture looks balanced to bullish. Longer-te..
Asian LPG markets have found a floor for the time being as Chinese imports and demand from regional ethylene crackers have both picked up again. Floating storage has stopped accumulating for now, having peaked in late-August. Nonetheless, this looks like a temporary reprieve rather than a permane..
Global LPG markets floundered further in July, and there are few prospects in the short term for a meaningful recovery. Market participants are starting to look ahead to the heating season, but stockpiling demand is likely to be lower than normal. Inventories outside of the US are mostly higher t..