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OPEC oil data – Feb 2017
Published 15 Mar 2017
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We have expanded our OPEC Data review to include a more in-depth examination of our own numbers, as well as continuing to present a clear analysis of third party estimates. We estimate that OPEC production (including Indonesia) rose m/m by 0.16 mb/d in February to 32.88 mb/d—still 0.7.. -
Soul searching
Published 6 Mar 2017
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Before the reports about a coalition of militias launching an attack on Libyan eastern ports emerged late on Friday, there was very little going for the bulls. Headlines were dominated by sharply higher OPEC exports in February leading to widespread concerns about cheating, and speculation that S.. -
Fundamentals
Published 28 Feb 2017
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Colder-than-average weather across Southwest Europe and an outage on the first Gorgon LNG train tightened the global supply-demand balance in January, boosting European prices and curbing deliveries to most other LNG destinations. Northwest European LNG imports have been lower y/y since the begin.. -
IP week: Whispers of success
Published 27 Feb 2017
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After two gloomy years, sentiment at IP week 2017 was slightly more upbeat—with the crude market rebalancing in sight. Attendees seemed happy with the high degree of OPEC compliance, although a push to backwardation is probably premature. The prognosis for refining margins was the opposite,.. -
MENA – Jan 2017
Published 27 Feb 2017
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LNG imports in the Middle East and North Africa were broadly flat m/m at 0.81 Mt in January, although y/y growth recovered to 0.14 Mt from 0.02 Mt in December. Still, growth has started the year in a less spectacular fashion than in 2016, a trend we expect to continue over this year. Egypt import.. -
A signal shown
Published 24 Feb 2017
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A trading play will pump up visible stocks in Asia in the coming weeks, but this is only a prelude to a summer of supply tightness. Onshore stocks of fuel oil in Singapore will likely rise beyond the nearly 27 mb level seen in late February, so some short-term floating storage may be needed. On t.. -
Fundamentals February 2017
Published 22 Feb 2017
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Fundamentals is our monthly review of global oil data, this is the February 2017 edition. Despite the OPEC cuts, global inventories have continued to build. Yet, our implied global stock change for Q1 17 is -0.4 mb/d, suggesting inventories of oil liquids will decline q/q in Q1 17. This see.. -
Middle East oil demand – Dec 2016
Published 20 Feb 2017
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Middle Eastern oil demand for the top 10 countries ex-bunkering rose y/y by 0.12 mb/d in December 2016 to 6.25 mb/d, following three consecutive months of hefty declines. However, Saudi oil demand fell for the fourth straight month, this time by 80 thousand b/d y/y to 2.21 mb/d. Diesel fell y/y b.. -
Key agency forecasts
Published 13 Feb 2017
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Over the past week, the key agency forecasts have been published. The EIA STEO was released last Tuesday, the IEA published its abridged OMR on Friday while OPEC published its MOMR today. It was demand, rather than supply, that dominated the latest round of key agency forecasts and rightly so, gi.. -
OPEC oil data – Jan 2017
Published 13 Feb 2017
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According to the third party estimates that Energy Aspects collects, OPEC production fell m/m by 0.90 mb/d in January, to 32.24 mb/d. All third parties excluded Indonesia from their estimates. This represents 86% compliance among the 11 members covered by the 30 November production agreement. Our.. -
Fundamentals
Published 31 Jan 2017
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China remained the strongest LNG importer in December 2016, while Korean demand was also robust, thanks to cold weather and nuclear outages. At the same time, demand from other major importers was weak—Japan resumed y/y declines after cold weather prompted stronger buying across much of Q4 16, an.. -
Just a blip
Published 31 Jan 2017
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The global gas market has started 2017 with a fair amount of volatility. Prices surged above 9 $/mmbtu in Northeast Asia and southern Europe before dropping back a couple of dollars in late January. While eye-catching, the high prices were never likely to hang around for very long. These peak win.. -
MENA – Dec 2016
Published 30 Jan 2017
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In December 2016, LNG imports in the Middle East and North Africa fell m/m to just 0.82 Mt. While this is in keeping with the seasonal pattern, as imported gas is primarily used to meet peak summer demand, y/y growth slowed to just 0.02 Mt, the slowest since February 2016 when demand actually fel.. -
Fundamentals January 2017
Published 24 Jan 2017
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Fundamentals is our monthly review of global oil data, this is the January 2017 edition. Even though all the focus and talk in the market has been about supplies of late, we have to highlight the strength in oil demand that has dominated the largest change in our balances this month. Indeed, glo.. -
Tortoise and the hare
Published 23 Jan 2017
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22 days in and the focus on OPEC compliance is already becoming unbearable. With the market pouring over every mention of cuts, OPEC ministers are leaving no stone unturned to convince everyone that they have gone above and beyond their obligations on output cuts. Yet, the proof will only be visi..
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