Outlook

  • New and green

    New and green cover image Published 16 Oct 2019 by
    Executive summaryEUA prices dropped over the last month, with some of the supportive developments from early in September becoming less supportive as time passed. Instead, the market focussed on the bearish fundamentals on the demand side—emissions reductions from plenty of coal-to-gas swit..

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  • Flying out of the EU

    Flying out of the EU cover image Published 23 Sep 2019 by
    EUA prices have settled in a 24-28 €/t trading range, with some supportive developments being offset by the continued risk of a no-deal Brexit. We expect another month of rangebound trading. The market is awaiting Brexit developments, but news flow on that topic could slow while the UK parliament..

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  • Bulls of summer

    Bulls of summer cover image Published 19 Jul 2019 by
    Having tested but failed to break downside resistance at the start of June, the EUA market looked to test the upside, and a heavy early July news flow provided enough momentum to break out of its range to the upside. While prices have eased after hitting a within-day high of 29.5 €/t, that p..

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  • Brexit finds its Bojo

    Brexit finds its Bojo cover image Published 21 Jun 2019 by
    Brexit risk is back. The UK Conservative party’s process to find a new leader continues. The overwhelming favourite to win, Boris Johnson, has a campaign pledge that the UK will leave the EU on 31 October, with or without a deal. The next step is that Boris Johnson and the candidate that ca..

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  • Brexit risk returns

    Brexit risk returns cover image Published 23 May 2019 by
    The April relief rally has run its course and EUA prices have settled in a new range between 24-28 €/t. Signals that could cause the market to break out to either side of that range are limited. The key bull feature remains the MSR, which will remove almost 400 Mt out of the 2019 market. Tho..

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  • Super massive

    Super massive cover image Published 24 Apr 2019 by
    The general bearishness in the European fuels complex has not proven any sort of barrier to another bull run in the EU carbon market. With the EU ETS in a bullish mood and Dec-19 adding some 5.5 €/t (25%) since the start of April, has the current bull run merely been driven by some short-ter..

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  • Brexit smack up

    Brexit smack up cover image Published 22 Mar 2019 by
    EUA price formation in 2019 has so far been in the grip of downside risks, particularly Brexit, a topic that has dominated the last few weeks. On 27 February, UK Prime Minister Theresa May announced that she was going to hold a series of votes from 12 March on Brexit, which the market interpreted..

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  • Consensus break

    Consensus break cover image Published 21 Feb 2019 by
    Please note users licensed for the data service can access our European ETS balance, utility hedging, European power generation data and emissions price forecasts. Over February, the EUA market finally broke out of its fairly well-established trading range, but..

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  • Hog wild

    Hog wild cover image Published 23 Jan 2019 by
    2019 is here, and so is the start of the much-anticipated MSR, which will take just under 400 Mt out of the auction pots. The 2018 super bull run over January–September was all in anticipation of the tighter market fundamentals that will persist over the 2019–2021 period and the impac..

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  • Hedge less spec more

    Hedge less spec more cover image Published 20 Nov 2018 by
    Please note that this will be the last Carbon Outlook of 2018. The next edition will be published in January. Carbon Weekly will continue to be published as normal in the interim. Please note users licensed for the data service can access our European ETS balance, utility hedging, European p..

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  • Technical break

    Technical break cover image Published 26 Oct 2018 by
    The super bull run that has dominated the carbon market has taken an extended breather over October, with the market as interested in testing technical lows as it is returning to its uptrend. If the three days of hyper volatility in early September are stripped out, the EUA market has now sat in..

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  • Bit-carbon

    Bit-carbon cover image Published 25 Sep 2018 by
    The EUA super bull run of 2018 shows no signs of slowing down despite the odd high-volatility pricing event. Prices in late September were above 22 €/t, having started the year around 7 €/t. The high sustained carbon prices are supporting related markets, with TTF winter-delivery gas pr..

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  • Revolution revisited

    Revolution revisited cover image Published 15 Aug 2018 by
    Another four weeks of strong EUA price gains suggests that the proprietary longs still have an appetite for the trade. The drop in primary supply in August has helped. Power demand has provided some support for compliance buying, but strong hydro and solar generation in southern Europe has blunte..

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  • Getting connected

    Getting connected cover image Published 23 Jul 2018 by
    The market rebounded over the last couple of weeks, clawing back losses after the run-up to the expiry of the Jun-18 options on ICE. Since the close on expiry day (19 June), the Dec-18 EUA contract has added back some 13%, moving back above 16 €/t for closing prices in mid-July. However, the..

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  • Think it’s all over

    Think it’s all over cover image Published 27 Jun 2018 by
    June has seen a break in what had previously been a nearly relentless EUA bull run that has seen EUA prices more than double since January. The Dec-18 contract hit a close as high as 16.3 €/t on 29 May, but has softened in June to as low as 14.24 €/t on 19 June, before heading back to o..

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