Outlook

  • Brexit smack up

    Brexit smack up cover image Published 22 Mar 2019 by
    EUA price formation in 2019 has so far been in the grip of downside risks, particularly Brexit, a topic that has dominated the last few weeks. On 27 February, UK Prime Minister Theresa May announced that she was going to hold a series of votes from 12 March on Brexit, which the market interpreted..

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  • Consensus break

    Consensus break cover image Published 21 Feb 2019 by
    Please note users licensed for the data service can access our European ETS balance, utility hedging, European power generation data and emissions price forecasts.Over February, the EUA market finally broke out of its fairly well-established trading range, but i..

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  • Hog wild

    Hog wild cover image Published 23 Jan 2019 by
    2019 is here, and so is the start of the much-anticipated MSR, which will take just under 400 Mt out of the auction pots. The 2018 super bull run over January–September was all in anticipation of the tighter market fundamentals that will persist over the 2019–2021 period and the impac..

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  • Hedge less spec more

    Hedge less spec more cover image Published 20 Nov 2018 by
    Please note that this will be the last Carbon Outlook of 2018. The next edition will be published in January. Carbon Weekly will continue to be published as normal in the interim. Please note users licensed for the data service can access our European ETS balance, utility hedging, European p..

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  • Technical break

    Technical break cover image Published 26 Oct 2018 by
    The super bull run that has dominated the carbon market has taken an extended breather over October, with the market as interested in testing technical lows as it is returning to its uptrend. If the three days of hyper volatility in early September are stripped out, the EUA market has now sat in..

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  • Bit-carbon

    Bit-carbon cover image Published 25 Sep 2018 by
    The EUA super bull run of 2018 shows no signs of slowing down despite the odd high-volatility pricing event. Prices in late September were above 22 €/t, having started the year around 7 €/t. The high sustained carbon prices are supporting related markets, with TTF winter-delivery gas pr..

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  • Revolution revisited

    Revolution revisited cover image Published 15 Aug 2018 by
    Another four weeks of strong EUA price gains suggests that the proprietary longs still have an appetite for the trade. The drop in primary supply in August has helped. Power demand has provided some support for compliance buying, but strong hydro and solar generation in southern Europe has blunte..

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  • Getting connected

    Getting connected cover image Published 23 Jul 2018 by
    The market rebounded over the last couple of weeks, clawing back losses after the run-up to the expiry of the Jun-18 options on ICE. Since the close on expiry day (19 June), the Dec-18 EUA contract has added back some 13%, moving back above 16 €/t for closing prices in mid-July. However, the..

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  • Think it’s all over

    Think it’s all over cover image Published 27 Jun 2018 by
    June has seen a break in what had previously been a nearly relentless EUA bull run that has seen EUA prices more than double since January. The Dec-18 contract hit a close as high as 16.3 €/t on 29 May, but has softened in June to as low as 14.24 €/t on 19 June, before heading back to o..

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  • Calling December early

    Calling December early cover image Published 23 May 2018 by
    Another month, another acceleration in the EUA bull run. While April was actually a fairly modest month for EUA price gains, with the Dec-18 contract only adding 2% over the month, May has been racing upwards, passing 14 €/t at close on 9 May and 15 €/t on 16 May. The renewed upswing co..

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  • Double Dutch

    Double Dutch cover image Published 19 Apr 2018 by
    Another month into 2018 and the bull run that EUAs have been on appears as rampant as ever, with another 2.8 €/t or so added to the EUA price since mid-March and the Dec-18 contract flirting with 14 €/t by mid-April. We are not calling an end to the upward price movements, but a potenti..

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  • Blowing bubbles

    Blowing bubbles cover image Published 26 Mar 2018 by
    The 2018 rampant bull-run that EUAs have been on did not abate at all this month, with another 2.0 €/t to the EUA price, leaving the Dec-18 contract trading at above 12 €/t as March comes to a close. The big future short positions in the market retain a pull on the market, with growing..

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  • Optionality

    Optionality cover image Published 22 Feb 2018 by
    EUAs have been on a rampant bull run through the last two months, with two distinct but very strong EUA price ramp-ups in the second half of December and mid-January, followed by a third jump at the start of February. All in all, the consistent uptick has added almost 3.0 €/t to the EUA pric..

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  • Driving into 18

    Driving into 18 cover image Published 18 Jan 2018 by
    2017 was another year of EU ETS policy developments adding to market price volatility. Much of that volatility drove upwards movements as the EU settled on a very bullish ETS reform package and the ‘Brexit clause’ added unnecessary disruption.  The fundamentals are unlikely to be..

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  • Fat lady sung

    Fat lady sung cover image Published 24 Nov 2017 by
    November finally saw the conclusion of the long and winding legislative path of EU ETS Phase 4 reform package. Agreed at trilogue at the sixth attempt, the bill retained its bullish components and was made slightly more bullish by a rule that is set up to automatically deepen the ETS caps by canc..

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